Should we expect a turning point in the civil war in Sudan? The RSF paramilitaries have said they are available to participate in ceasefire talks, after the United States urged the warring parties to engage in dialogue: in particular, Washington had put forward the idea of a summit to be held on August 14 in Switzerland. “The United States has announced that the negotiations will be co-hosted by Saudi Arabia and will include the African Union, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and the United Nations as observers,” he reported. Al-Jazeera.
“I appreciate the efforts of the United States, Saudi Arabia and Switzerland in organizing these crucial talks. We share with the international community the goal of achieving a comprehensive ceasefire across the country, facilitating humanitarian access for all those in need and developing a robust monitoring and verification mechanism to ensure the implementation of any agreement reached,” said the RSF leader, Hemedti. On the other hand, the head of the Sudanese army, Abdel Fattah al-Burhanhas not yet announced whether he will take part in the talks.
We remember that al-Burhan and the RSF have been at war since April last year. So far, there have been tens of thousands of victims and nearly ten million displaced people. There are also geopolitical ramifications. Russia used to have fairly close relations with the RSF. Lately, Moscow seems to have moved closer to al-Burhan. Last month, Deutsche Welle reported that the Russians were ready to sign a series of agreements in the defense sector with the Sudanese government. Moscow would especially aim to build its own naval base on the Red Sea. Not only that. Just a few days ago, Sudan and Iran exchanged ambassadors after eight years: let us remember that Tehran is one of Russia’s main Middle Eastern allies and that, among the various terrorist organizations, it also finances those Houthis who have been infesting the waters of the Red Sea for months.
On the other side, it is clear that Washington’s diplomatic engagement in the Sudanese civil war is aimed (also) at regaining ground in a region, the Sahel, in which the United States has recently lost influence. A Sahel that has instead progressively moved into the Russian orbit, especially with regard to Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. So the United States is trying to reverse the trend. Mediation in Sudan could offer a significant opportunity in this sense. We will have to understand what it will decide to do al-Burhan. And what will be Moscow’s reaction to the Swiss summit’s proposal? Finally, by involving Saudi Arabia and the Emirates in the mediation, the United States is trying to relaunch its political role in the Middle East as well: an area in which the Biden administration has lost significant ground in recent years.
