There is great anticipation for Sunday’s elections in Venezuela. The outgoing president, Nicolas Maduroremains the favorite to win, also because his regime is not exactly transparent and democratic.
As it happens, theAssociated Press recently reported that he is using the military to monitor (and possibly intimidate) citizens attending opposition rallies and events. Yet, the main challenger to Maduro, Edmund Gonzalesis considered a rather strong candidate. “There is broad consensus that the Maduro government is facing its toughest electoral moment in the last 25 years,” reported the CNN.
At the heart of the electoral debate is above all the collapse that the Venezuelan economy has registered in recent years. If Maduro claims that the situation was caused by an American economic war against Caracas, while the opposition blames the policies adopted by the current president. In this dramatic situation, around eight million Venezuelans have left the country, seeking refuge mainly in other areas of Latin America. But the economy is only one of the issues on which these elections are being played.
The other aspect to monitor is obviously the geopolitical one. Maduroin recent years, has brought Venezuela ever closer to Russia, China, Cuba and Iran. It is no mystery that the current president has always pursued a fundamentally anti-American line. On the other hand, a possible victory of Gonzales would most likely bring Caracas closer to Washington. That is why the United States is monitoring the situation closely. In recent years, Joe Biden has been criticized by Republicans for easing some of the American sanctions against Venezuela in the energy sector. It was also last fall when it was announced that the current White House would resume the repatriation of illegal immigrants to Venezuela. It is therefore not excluded that Sunday’s elections could enter the American debate in view of the presidential elections in November. As is known, Donald Trumpas president, had a much tougher approach than Biden towards Maduro.
The crux of the matter also lies in the fact that the current occupant of the White House has significantly lost influence on Latin America. With the exception of the victory of Javier Milei in Argentina, much of the area has shifted increasingly towards the Sino-Russian axis in the last few years. This explains why a possible victory of Gonzales could help reverse the trend.
