2025 promises to be a crucial year for the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and, more generally, for the global geopolitical structure. Hopes for a ceasefire are intertwined with political reorganization in Russia and the Ukrainian electoral path, while the world watches the developments with apprehension. Between growing tensions and timid glimmers of peace, the protagonists of this historic crisis – Zelenskij, Lavrov, the echo of the Tsar, Putin himself and even Trump – find themselves at a crossroads.
Sergei Lavrov, Russian Foreign Minister, reiterated that a ceasefire “it would be useless without addressing the root causes of the conflict”. This stance reflects the Kremlin’s increasingly evident isolation, which has excluded Western leaders such as Joe Biden, Rishi Sunak and Emmanuel Macron from its end-of-year diplomatic briefings. Curiously, Pope Francis is among the recipients of Vladimir Putin’s greetings, a sign that could indicate an attempt to keep an open channel with neutral interlocutors.
For Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenskiy, 2025 represents a unique opportunity to end a devastating war. “Ukraine must do everything to end the war in 2025 through diplomacy”Zelenskij declared recently, underlining however the need for a strong army to negotiate from a position of advantage. In support of this vision, US President Joe Biden announced an additional $2.5 billion in military aid to Kiev. “It has been a top priority of mine to provide Ukraine with the support it needs to prevail.”Biden said.
Cautious optimism can also be glimpsed in Europe. Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, called 2025 “the decisive year” for Ukraine. “Three years will have passed since the start of the Russian invasion. Vladimir Putin is redoubling his efforts to make gains, but we must ensure that Ukraine prevails. Europe has so far provided Ukraine with almost 130 billion euros”he recalled during a press conference in Brussels.
Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani said: “Is a ceasefire in Ukraine in 2025 possible? Absolutely yes” (Italpress), while warning that “Before discussing the restitution of occupied territories, it is essential to ensure that the weapons remain silent.”
However, the Ukrainian political horizon may be about to change. According to press reports, Donald Trump is advocating “presidential and parliamentary elections” in Ukraine for 2025. This could lead to a change of leadership, perhaps with the emergence of a new leader more inclined to end the war.
In this context, the figure of Aleksej Arestovich stands out as a potential tip of the balance. A former advisor to Zelenskij, Arestovic has announced his presidential candidacy for the 2025 elections. Polyglot and passionate about geopolitics, he proposes a conservative vision centered on the country’s independence. With his direct and often provocative style, he envisions NATO membership through political means and the restitution of occupied territories. For now, the elections remain conditional on the lifting of martial law and the cessation of hostilities.
As Ukraine looks to the future, Russia appears trapped in an increasingly oppressive cycle of repression. Putin’s authoritarian legacy – which began in 1999 – reached its peak in 2024 with the death in prison of Alexei Navalny. This event left a void that figures such as Ekaterina Schulman and Ilya Yashin are trying to fill.
Ekaterina Schul’man, an influential intellectual, offers critical analyzes of the Russian political system from exile, while Yašin, freed in a prisoner exchange, argues that “Russia’s future depends on a united opposition capable of proposing an alternative vision”. However, the Russian opposition remains fragmented, as evidenced during the November 17, 2024 march in Berlin, where both are now residents.
The demonstration, led by prominent opposition figures such as Yulia Navalnya and Vladimir Kara-Murza, gathered around two thousand participants. The protesters made specific demands: the immediate withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine, a war crimes trial against Vladimir Putin and the release of political prisoners. Berlin, with its long tradition of welcoming dissidents, has confirmed itself as the epicenter of the Russian opposition movement. This event, the first of its scale organized abroad since the invasion of Ukraine, represented a rare moment of unity among dissidents, usually divided over programs and strategies for Russia’s future.
Despite internal tensions and disagreements, the German capital continues to embody hope for the opposition, as demonstrated by the announcement of a new march scheduled for March 2025. However, the situation remains critical: abroad, the movement appears fragmented , while in Russia it is almost completely suffocated by a repressive system that Human Rights Watch has defined “the most oppressive since the end of the Soviet era”.
On the international stage, Donald Trump’s return to the White House adds further uncertainty. Trump has offered himself as a mediator in the conflict, but his ambiguous rhetoric and past relationship with Moscow raise doubts about his actual ability to promote peace. His approach may be a political strategy to boost his image, but without coordinated global support, it is unlikely to lead to concrete results.
Peace or chaos? Or, to put it like Tolstoy: war or peace? Will Ukraine be able to achieve stable peace? Will Russia be able to start a process of change? And will Trump’s return change the global order, intensifying tensions or creating new diplomatic opportunities? One thing is certain: 2025 will be a decisive year, marked by turning points that will leave an indelible mark. The choices made in this crucial phase will define the destiny of entire generations and recalibrate international balances. Humanity peers with veiled anxiety, knowing that the present will determine the future.
There are many possible scenarios. Under Zelenskiy, Ukraine could continue to strengthen its position internationally, while a possible change of leadership could lead to a more conciliatory strategy. On the Russian front, internal repression could accentuate dissent, even if radical change still appears far away. Globally, the balance between the great powers – with Europe, the United States and China at center stage – will profoundly influence international relations in the coming years.
