Economy

2026, escape from Piazza Affari (the big companies focus on Wall Street or private funds)

Record yourself, Tim And Mediobanca are preparing to leave the stock exchange. Probably Iveco will follow. Business Square it empties itself of big. The price list increasingly resembles the waiting room of a station: many people in transit, few stable stops. Let’s take the numbers, because the numbers don’t lie, even if sometimes they would rather they did. The main price list matters today 198 listed companies. In 2010 there were 272. A chessboard with an increasingly lower number of pieces.

However, the market is worth more. Capitalization, in fact, has broken the ceiling of one thousand billion eurosbut hosts fewer actors. It’s like a theater where the costumes are increasingly sumptuous but the rows of seats are emptying.

The farewell of the historical giants and the concentration of value

2026 will go down in history for the release of many biggies almost simultaneously. Mediobanca (listed since 1956), Tim present on the price list since 1964 when it was still called Sip. In the end Record yourself. It arrived in 1984 and remained alone to represent a sector of excellence such as pharmaceuticals. Stevanatoin fact, he preferred to go to Wall Street. In the meantime, the heirs of the old Arrigo Recordati gradually left the scene. For years now, a silent but incessant exodus has been underway which has seen several historic blue chips disappear from the Milanese stock exchange, from Atlantia to Autogrillpassing through Saras and Exor. An impoverishment that in 2025 alone can be quantified as 2.4 billion euros of lost capitalization, which is counterbalanced by an even more worrying zero in the new prices box on the main price list Italian stock exchange. From the latest Capital Markets Observatory, created by Equityit emerges that the overall capitalization of the domestic stock market continues to be heavily concentrated on the largest companies, with the top ten representing more than half of the overall value of the list (55%).

The market is no longer a point of arrival, but a transition phase. You enter, you raise the capital, you exit. Like a hotel, but with less room service. The reasons are a varied catalog of dissatisfactions. The first, and most banal, is the assessment. The market doesn’t understand, the market is short-sighted, the market doesn’t recognize value. It is the eternal complaint of the listed entrepreneur and, like all complaints, it has a part of truth and a part of self-justification. The reality is that European markets, and the Italian one in particular, often trade at lower multiples as compared to Wall Street. A gap that managers feel first-hand every time they read the press review. The second reason is the cost of quotation. Being on the market means extensive controls, regulatory compliance, investor relations, quarterly reports, shareholder meetings, questions from analysts, press releases for every movement of the wind. It is a commitment that is manageable for large companies. For small and medium-sized enterprises, the backbone of the Italian productive fabric, a disproportionate burden compared to the benefits.

The siege of private equity and the myopia of indices

The third, and probably the most powerful, is the alternative offered by private equity. Over the last decade, funds have become voracious buyers of listed companies. They come with an offer you can’t refuse: they promise speed of decision-making, strategic flexibility, and the absence of prying eyes. And the properties give way, often with relief. «With the bottom Palladium we have acquired speed and complementary skills”, said Bruno Conterno, founder of Nice Footwearone of the many SMEs that have chosen this path. It’s a phrase that could be uttered by dozens of colleagues.

The fourth reason, less discussed but no less real, is the polarization of trade. If the top ten companies are worth 55% of the capitalization, going up to 21 you reach 81% of the entire stock market. The ETF and managers focus on the big ones and systematically ignore everything else. A listed SME that is not part of the main indices can feel like a small shop surrounded by large shopping centers: people walk around, look at the window, but then buy elsewhere.

Anyone wishing to console themselves with a bit of healthy relativism can look to the rest of Europe. And he would find comfort. But also a few more thrills. Londonwhich was the most liquid and deepest market on the continent, experienced its worst year since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2024: 88 delistings and just 15 debuts. The Financial Times dedicates entire pages to the problem. There Brexit it has made things worse, driving away international investors and making listing in London less attractive than on continental markets or, above all, on Wall Street.

NextChem and the tech dream: who is knocking on the doors of Milan

The wound is deep and does not heal quickly. Paris leads the European ranking for the value of delistings, as well 400 billion less in a five-year period, driven by large industrial consolidation operations. Germany has experienced two waves of massive exits. Amsterdam he lost important pieces. The common denominator is one: European stock markets are losing ground compared to private equity, compared to American markets, compared to alternative financing instruments which in recent years have multiplied like mushrooms after the rain.

The difference is not just numerical: it is narrative. The overseas beaches tell a story of growth, innovation and the future. But not everything is grey. In the year of big goodbyes, someone knocks on the door of Business Square. The names have been circulating for months with the typical discretion of those who don’t want to say too much ahead of time. The most awaited is NextChemthe subsidiary of Maire Tecnimont specialized in sustainable technologies. Net profit growing over 30%, order book expanding, expected valuation around two billion. If multiples hold up and the market is generous, it could be the debut of the year. Then there is Praexidiathe Defense hub designed as an aggregator of Italian SMEs in the sector. A vehicle that sounds very contemporary – the Defense it has become, with the exacerbation of geopolitical tensions, one of the favorite sectors for European investors. Rearmament is the magic word of the moment.

Further in time, we talk about Plenitude (for the renewable hub of Eni every year could be the right one to land on the stock exchange, according to its own CEO), of Golden Goose (the luxury worn sneakers that continue to grow by double digits), and of the eternal object of desire that it is Bending Spoonsthe Milanese unicorn of the app economy rated above 11 billion. Bending Spoons, however, looks mainly at Wall Street – like all those in Italy who have built something truly global. Then Tecnoprobe which should soon rise to the blue chip Olympus. The company with its probe cards, used to test semiconductors during chip production, has become the symbolic stock of Business Square for those who want to ride the wave of Artificial Intelligence. Capitalize further 9 billion eurosby far the largest title among those outside the main list.

From norms to culture: recipes for rebirth

It must also be said that there are various initiatives to strengthen the price lists. The European Union has launched the Listing Acta package of rules designed to make the listing of SMEs more attractive. Italy has introduced tax bonuses for Hyporegional incentives such as Lombardy shareand is working on a fund of Mef And Cdp to support listed SMEs. The Capital Decree cuts costs and simplifies procedures. It’s the right direction.

But operators in the sector know that regulations alone are not enough. We need a critical mass of investors specializing in small and mid cap: funds, active managers, analysts willing to cover companies that turn over a handful of millions. We need an entrepreneurial culture that sees listing not as a one-off event, but as a permanent tool for growth. Perhaps we also need a bit of that American pragmatism that considers it normal to have an audience of aware and participatory retail investors.

Certain Business Square it will continue anyway. The index will continue to refresh all-time highs, driven by Unicredit And Understandingfrom Ferrari and Eni. They are the stocks that make the stock market but they are not the entire stock market. But it will be another stock exchange, smaller in number, more concentrated in values, less close to the real economy of a country made up of small and medium-sized businesses that still struggle to find their natural ally in the capital market. Unless, of course, someone decides to rewrite the ending. But that’s another story.