Italy will have to go through the play-offs to qualify for the 2026 World Cup. Here are the possible opponents, when the draw will be made, with which seedings and rules
Two games to win in five days. One certainly playing at home against an opponent on the lower card and the other hanging from a draw and with a level of difficulty that rises. These are the feared March play-offs for the 2026 World Cup, the last window for a European national team to earn a pass for the world championship that will be played next summer. There are 4 places up for grabs which will be added to the 12 winners of the elimination groups.
For Italy it is the third time in history to avoid another third time, which would be devastating for the entire movement: a new exclusion from the world finals after those suffered in 2018, kicked out by Sweden, and in 2022, kicked out of North Macedonia. There is a positive precedent, albeit now distant in time, which takes us back to France ’98 which the Azzurri of the time arrived at by excluding Russia in a match with no tomorrow.
2026 World Cup play-offs, possible semi-final opponents
The play-off rules are simple and brutal at the same time. In the first round (26 March) the qualifiers, i.e. the runners-up in the groups and 4 who are picked up from among the eliminated thanks to their behavior in the last Nations League, compete according to their position in the world ranking. Italy is certain of being seeded and is sure of having to meet one of the teams that make up the fourth and final pot, that of those saved thanks to the Nations League.
With three matchdays to go in the qualifying groups, it is Wales, Romania, Northern Ireland and Moldova. The risk is that the ballot box will also enter Sweden with its load of players of medium-high international level and with all the bad memories that a challenge with the Swedes who have already been fatal to us in the aforementioned world play-off and in the 2004 European Championship would evoke. Sweden must manage to get behind Kosovo and Slovenia to avoid having to resort to the Nations League bonus, slipping into the fourth pot. It would also do Gattuso’s boys a favor, who also don’t have to fear anyone. In any case, the semi-final will certainly be played in a single match at Italy’s home ground.
2026 World Cup play-offs, Italy’s possible opponent in the final
Imagining that you have passed the first step, here is what leads to the 2026 World Cup or condemned to the hell of a third consecutive exclusion. Single match scheduled for March 31st with a draw that decides the pitch factor. A draw also decides who can be the opponent with the only parachute of not foreseeing clashes between the seeded national teams who are in the first pot. With three days to go in the groups, together with Italy there are Türkiye, Ukraine and potentially Sweden if they do their duty from here on. Otherwise Poland could take over.
Be careful, it won’t be a walk in the park because it’s one thing to host the match in Rome, Milan or any Italian stadium, and it’s another thing to have to visit facilities that can exert strong pressure on the players on the pitch. Rules that have been known for years and which, for example, would have forced Mancini’s Italy to perform a miracle against Portugal if Palermo’s sporting suicide against North Macedonia had not occurred: not the greatest competitive balance, but this is the regulation wanted by FIFA and UEFA.
In order of strength and danger, here are Italy’s potential opponents in a playoff final for the 2026 World Cup: to avoid Poland (in any case), Hungary-Slovakia-Scotland (especially away, the Slovaks recently beat Germany), pay close attention to the Czech Republic and, perhaps, a few less bad thoughts with Albania, Bosnia and North Macedonia.
2026 World Cup play-offs, the draw dates
With the qualifying rounds closing on November 16th, everything will be clear and defined with a draw to be held in Zurich at the FIFA headquarters on November 21st. It will design not only the semi-final pairings but also what will happen afterwards. From then on it will be known whether Gattuso’s Italy will have to do a feat to go to the World Cup or just not shoot themselves in the foot as in the past.
A curiosity: having to wait until March to know our fate, even the big World Cup draw gala scheduled in Washington on December 5th will only affect us in passing. In some groups there will be an X instead of the national team name. The dream is that one of those tracks will then be occupied by Italy.
