Brent remains above 100 dollars a barrel and strategic inventories are unable to cool the market. So Washington temporarily opens up to Moscow’s barrels to avoid a new global energy shock.
Oil moves but remains attached to the three-digit throne. The Brent go around 103 dollars a barrelThe Wti it remains just above i $97. A pause, perhaps technical, perhaps political. We will understand this later. The European stock exchangeshowever, they did not appreciate the change of score. Milan closes at -0.3%Frankfurt a -0.7% and Paris a -0.9%. Nothing catastrophic, but enough to remember that the price lists do not like geopolitical surprises, especially when they involve thousands of oil tankers parked at the gates of Hormuz.
Trump’s exemption on Russian oil
With one of the coups of theater to which the global economy has become accustomed, Donald Trump decided to grant a 30-day exemption from sanctions on Russian oil stranded at sea. In other words: for a month those loads can be delivered, sold and unloaded. The license covers crude oil loaded onto ships by March 12 and will remain valid until midnight April 11 (Washington time).
In an attempt to avoid conspiracy theories (Trump running to Putin’s rescue), the Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessentpresents it as a surgical measure: limited and temporary. A balm to heal the lacerations caused by war. Of the series, with oil above 100 dollars, someone has to pull the brakes. And the brake, in this case, are Russian tankers.
The availability of strategic reserves it didn’t help anything. If governments undermine emergency assets, the market reasoned, it means that the situation is serious. So Trump tries with the barrels of the Kremlin. According to Moscow’s presidential envoy, Kirill Dmitrievthe exemption could unlock approximately 100 million barrels of crude oil per day. A huge but not conclusive figure because it is equivalent to one day’s world production. A patch.
The sea full of barrels and Moscow’s shadow fleet
The fact remains that sea routes are overflowing with oil awaiting destination: 7.3 million barrels stored on floating platforms e 148.6 million on ships in transit, according to data cited by Reuters. And it doesn’t end here. On the floating platforms there are also 420,000 tons of oil and diesel. A car park by the sea that looks like a motorway.
Within this geography there is also the «shadow fleet». According to a report by the Center for strategic and international studies, Moscow has 435 tankers committed to circumventing sanctions. They deliver approx 3.7 million barrels per daythat is, the 65% of Russia’s maritime oil tradegenerating between 87 and 100 billion dollars a year.
In short, while the West is discussing the embargo, Moscow’s barrel has not stopped sailing, camouflaged with pirate insignia.
Above all, those who will immediately benefit from the American decision will be those Asian markets. After all, there are already big customers in Moscow China and Indiawho have never shown particular enthusiasm for Western sanctions.
Washington, among other things, had already granted a first exemption on March 5, allowing India to purchase Russian oil blocked at sea.
Brussels protests, but the market only looks at the price
The message is clear: when the market heats up, ideology must be put aside. The priority is the petrol price.
Naturally, the move was not greeted with applause in Brussels. On the contrary. The criticism came in torrents.
The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyspoke of a decision that will benefit Russia approximately 10 billion dollars. They are resources that will fuel the war machine.
The French president, Emmanuel Macronrecalled that the G7 line has always been that of «maximum economic pressure» about Moscow. Translation: sanctions cannot be touched.
The German Chancellor, Friedrich Merzquestions, wickedly, the reasons that pushed Washington to change its attitude.
The market follows the barrels, not the releases
The point though is that i energy markets they work with much less ideological parameters than official communiqués.
If oil rises too much, someone increases supply. If supply increases, the price falls. It is the golden law of the market that resists even European diplomacy.
So while Brussels discusses strategic coherence, the Brent rises and the Stocks drop. In short, the market does what it has always done: it responds to barrels, not to declarations.
Then there is a small paradox that Brussels prefers not to underline too much. Europe calls for maintaining sanctions against Moscow, but at the same time fears the energy price. A delicate balance: punishing Russian oil without causing global prices to rise too much. A squaring of the circle that, until now, no one has ever managed.
Trump chose the simplest path: temporarily unfreeze crude oil and cool the market. Maybe it’s not elegant from a geopolitical point of view, but it works from a pricing point of view.
In the global energy capitalismas traders in Chicago and Singapore know well, in the end what counts above all is what matters: the price per barrel. The rest – indignations, press releases, extraordinary summits – is just background noise.
