On June 14, Swiss citizens will vote on the implementation of a cap of 10 million inhabitants. Here are the reasons behind the initiative and the latest polls.
This weekend Switzerland will vote to decide whether to ask a legal limit on its population. “No to a Switzerland worth 10 million”this is the name of the referendum initiative to which Swiss citizens will be called upon to respond.
Presented as a “sustainability initiative”, the referendum question aims to counteract the growing shortage of accommodation, rising rents, traffic, and perceived tourist overpopulation. In other words, it is a measure aimed at limiting the influx of immigrants within the Confederation.
The referendum
The initiative is promoted by the UDC, the Democratic Union of the Centerwhich, despite its name, is the right-wing party with the largest number of seats in parliament, which managed to gather enough signatures to bring the issue to the polls Sunday 14 June.
The proposal, if approved, would establish by law that the permanent resident population of Switzerland, counting both Swiss citizens and foreigners with residence permits, cannot exceed 10 million by 2050.
The proposed mechanism is graduated, because it provides that if the population exceeds the threshold of 9.5 million, the government would be required to adopt restrictive measuresincluding a tightening of rules on asylum, family reunification and issuance of residence permits.
However, if the 10 million ceiling were reached, the measures would become more draconian, with the government being forced to terminate the agreement on the free movement of people with the European Union.
It should not be forgotten that Switzerland, although not a member of the EU, is integrated with it through numerous bilateral agreements, which guarantee access to the single market. Also and above all for this reason, the federal government and Parliament have spoken out against the initiative.
The reasons behind the initiative
Since the liberalization of the free movement of people in 2002, the Swiss population it has grown by approximately 1.7 million inhabitants, a phenomenon largely due to immigrationwhich in turn is closely related to the performance of the labor market.
The UDC has made the demands of the native Swiss its strong point for years. The party has in fact denounced what it defines as uncontrolled immigration, claiming that “our small country is saturated”.
According to the UDC, nature is being concreted over, roads are increasingly clogged, public transport is overloaded, schools are at their limits, rents are constantly rising, crime is on the rise and costs for taxpayers are booming.
It is no coincidence that, according to polls, this is the most persuasive argument among supporters of the initiative it is precisely the one relating to the overloading of Swiss infrastructurefollowed by the need to limit growth to protect natural resources.
Critics, by contrast, point out that private companies and public institutions such as hospitals and nursing homes regularly depend on recruiting skilled workers from the EU, making a population cap potentially harmful.
The polls
The internal debate was very heated, and the result still remains in the balance. A late April poll of over 16,000 respondents showed 52% in favor of the initiative and 46% againsta reversal from March, when naysayers had a slight advantage.
A subsequent survey by GfS Bern for the public broadcaster SRG, conducted between 20 April and 3 May on almost 20,000 participants, instead depicted a situation of perfect parity: 47% in favor and 47% against.
The latest available poll, however, published on June 3, marked a reversal of trend, with around 52% of the 19,400 respondents saying they were against the proposal, and only 45% in favor.
We therefore arrive at the vote with a certain uncertainty, with Switzerland which could become the first country in history to impose a limit on its own population.
