As in Spain ’82 and USA ’94, temperatures and humidity will impact the chances of victory for the favourites. A stage reveals who was advantaged and who was not…
The blue heroes of the triumph in the 1982 Spanish World Cup under the guidance of Enzo Bearzot they often talk about how much it was an advantage to play the first part of the tournament, that of the contested draws against Poland, Cameroon and Peru, in the shelter of the cool and oceanic climate of Vigo while the other big teams melted in the torrid summer of the rest of Spain. Arrigo Sacchi he has always cursed the FIGC’s choice to send his national team to the East coast in 1994 to meet the expectations of the communities of his compatriots in New York, Washington and Boston, a choice that drained the team of energy, perhaps compromising the possibility of bringing home the World Cup.
The 2026 World Cup also threatens to be heavily impacted by climate issues and the signs were seen a year ago in the first edition of the Club World Cup organized by FIFA in the States also as a dress rehearsal in view of the great national team competition. How much? There are those who have tried to put together temperatures, humidity levels and calendars team by team, drawing up a ranking of those who have had preferential treatment and those who, instead, will have to literally sweat their way to the final in New York.
The analysis was conducted by Round Our Way on the data of Climate Central: 97 of the 104 matches scheduled for the 2026 World Cup are considered medium or high risk since experience and research suggest how taking the field with the temperature column above 28° and a high humidity level directly affects the athletes’ performance and ability to concentrate.
Not all locations present the same critical issues. On the contrary. And here the analysis becomes interesting because it reveals how – imagining a winning path for the big teams until the final act of July 19th – the variable of heat and sultriness impacts differently with non-negligible relevance in the medium and long term. A question of fatigue in a single match but also and above all of ease of recovery between one match and another on an event that also involves grueling journeys effectively playing on an entire continent with cities that are even more than 5 thousand kilometers away from each other.
Heat effect, Argentina and Spain disadvantaged by the calendar
What is potentially at a disadvantage is theArgentina trophy holder. The national team of Messi and his teammates has a journey of 8 games ahead of them, almost all of which (at least 6) will be played in black cities and times: Dallas, Miami, Atlanta, and Kansas City. The index assigned by the Round Our Way report is 6.7 out of 8, the maximum found among the participants in the World Cup.
It’s bad too Spain who arrives in the States as the reigning European champion: 5.7 out of 8 having to pass through Dallas, Atlanta and Los Angeles as well as the Mexican Guadalajara. Too bad for the Portugal (5.9) who plays the group in the furnace of Houston and Miami and average commitment for theEngland who dreams of returning to the victory that has been missing since ’66 and which is assigned a weather difficulty index of 4.8.
The United States and France remain in the cold if…
The favorites based on the calendar and potential development of their path also in the second phase are France and United States. It is not surprising that the hosts were “lucky” because the weather conditions of the first three matches in Los Angeles and Seattle, combined with the times at which the matches are scheduled, allow for a soft start and the same can happen if they continue on a winning streak. The United States has an index of 3.2 (out of 8) which is the lowest among the 16 best national teams present at the World Cup. There France follows with 3.7: on paper only the possible semifinal in Dallas would be a black mark with a fresh start and a continuation of the tournament sheltered from the great heat.
Roger Hardingco-founder of Round Our Way: “This research shows that climate change is not a distant threat, but it could help decide who wins or loses the world’s biggest soccer tournament. Players will have to compete in hot, humid conditions that take a toll on the health of even the best-trained athletes, not to mention the fans watching them.
With record temperatures already recorded in the UK this May, the health risks associated with heat caused by climate change are not limited to the World Cup. Extreme heat is becoming a growing concern for players and fans here too. We must all follow advice on how to stay safe in hot weather, while politicians must accelerate efforts to reduce the pollution that causes increasingly dangerous extreme weather.”
