Important pieces of the Republican establishment are against the vice president, who can however count on blue collar workers, Silicon Valley and Trumpists who are cold towards the Israeli government
La Rubrica - Outside the Beltway: cronache e analisi di politica Usa
The maneuvers have already begun in view of the 2028 Republican presidential primaries. It is no mystery that, at least for now, the two main candidates will potentially be JD Vance and Marco Rubio. In this framework, second Axiosan important piece of the old Republican establishment would have begun to row against the current American vice president. And in fact the Wall Street Journal has recently published a series of articles particularly critical of him.
Moreover, it is above all the pro-Israeli conservatives who do not like Vance, who did not appreciate the attacks he launched against Benjamin Netanyahu and his government. Not only that. This area of the Republican Party does not even look favorably on the vice president’s commitment to diplomacy with Tehran and continues to consider him politically too close to the journalist Tucker Carlson who recently broke with Donald Trump over the Iranian conflict. On the other hand, already in mid-July, Political reported that Vance had alienated some of the Republican donors who held pro-Israeli positions. From this aspect, Rubio appears to be the favorite. The American secretary of state is historically closer to the Jewish state and, according to various rumors, he expressed skepticism towards the memorandum of understanding with Tehran that had been negotiated by Vance in June. Furthermore, it had already emerged in March that a large part of Republican donors had greater sympathy for the Secretary of State. Yet we must pay attention to easy automatisms. In fact, for Rubio, there is also a downside to the coin.
First of all, it should be noted that, regarding the war in Iran, the Maga base is divided. In fact, there are large sectors of it that are not only in favor of diplomacy but also cold towards the Israeli government. Vance is becoming the spokesperson for these worlds. At the same time, Rubio himself has not completely closed the door to diplomacy with the Islamic Republic, well aware of both the divisions within the Maga world and the fact that independent voters appear impatient with the ongoing conflict. Carlson’s departure from the Republican Party itself could be a strategy to catalyze the votes of the most disappointed Trumpists, so that they can then turn to Vance during the next presidential primaries.
Secondly, beyond the Middle East, it should be remembered that, in 2024, Trump also won thanks to the blue-collar workers of the Rust Belt: an electoral share in relation to which Vance, at least on paper, appears politically more solid than Rubio. The vice president could therefore decide to play the anti-system card. However, this does not mean that, in this case, he would not have powerful allies on his side. Elon Musk has made it clear that he will likely support Vance. A Vance who also historically enjoys close ties with Peter Thiel. In short, if Rubio can count on traditional financiers and circles linked to national security, the vice president currently appears stronger in his support of working class and Silicon Valley. The electoral coalition that brought Trump back to the White House is therefore being reshuffled in view of the 2028 primaries. Of course, there are still numerous unknowns on the horizon. And who knows, other figures may decide to take the field. However, one objective fact remains on the table: at least for now, the possible duel between Vance and Rubio appears more open than ever.
