Memory, tactics, harmony. The parliamentary truce is approaching. Giorgia Meloni Will you spend your holidays in Salento again this year? Maybe. His days will certainly be marked by cards. Not only those of the burraco, which has always been his passion in August, but of the sweaty dossiers that he frantically compels to Palazzo Chigi. We need phosphorus, strategy, harmony. As for the rest of the legislature: the recent defeats remain indelible, planning is needed, the allies need to be calmed down. It won’t be easy. And the beloved burraco teaches.
“The swamp won” the prime minister vents after the preferences that went to the polls Room. The amphibians, in the shadow of the secret vote, betrayed. Thirty-one votes were missing from the majority. Rather than seeking consensus, blocked lists, full of devotees, are better. Even better with the current electoral law, which favors slimy executives. In the previous decade, seven governments followed. Technical and seaside agreements in the name of responsibilities, stamped by the Quirinale.
Nothing new under the sun. Transformism was inaugurated by Agostino Depretis way back in 1882. The modern center-left has transformed it into institutional engineering.
The Palazzo Chigi dossiers and the trap of the secret vote
Only what time at Palazzo Chigi there is the unwanted guest: the first female Prime Minister, proudly right-wing. Worse: his government is preparing to become the longest ever. Not an eventuality, but a miracle. In half of Europe, prime ministers continue to alternate: France, Germany, England. In London, for example, the Labor Party’s Andy Burnham has just taken office. In his inaugural speech he said: “Britain must show the world that it can regain its stability.” The one that Italy embarked on in October 2022, with the victory of the center right, amidst impediments and resistance.
As in the burraco, Giorgia will get the coveted well on September 4th. At that point, there will be more than a year left at the end of the legislature. The continuation does not seem easy. It will be yet another hot autumn for Giorgia. The swamps are lurking, together with the disastrous international contingencies, the incandescent squares and the hostility of the judiciary. Giorgia hoped to be able to compete for two pinellas in the next elections. However, they rejected the justice reform in the referendum. And the preferences were announced in the classroom. The opposition vote against was expected. The contortions of the majority, however, are not. Who betrayed? I don’t know. The delight of snipers is this: they never get caught. Romano Prodi is still looking for the one hundred and one who skewered his candidacy for the Quirinale in 2013. Radio Montecitoriowith well-founded suspicions, blames above all the turbulent patrol of deputies Forza Italia. In particular, those who betrayed were the loyalists of Marina Berlusconi. Not really vote catchers, that’s it. And with Vannaccia’s moonlight, who ensures re-election in the unfortunate event of seeking consensus? But even the Knight’s eldest daughter, in the absence of paternal plebiscites, would prefer to rely on trusted people.
What in the majority is a hypothesis, however, in the opposition becomes theorem. Elly Schlein he can’t wait to replace the many misaligned ones with the few Praetorians. The last administrative elections, for the secretary Piddina, were a torment. In Salerno and Enna they elected the hated caciques, Vincenzo De Luca and Mirello Crisafulli, new mayors without a party symbol. Obviously also to Giuseppe Conte the current system is fine as it is. There is only one man in command. It does not tolerate the slightest dissent, see the criticism of the disjointed alliance reiterated by Chiara Appendino, vice president of the Five Star Movement. For him too: better blocked lists. Stay away from former Grillini and nostalgic Orthodox. Short leash: whoever goes astray pays.
The challenge of the electoral law and the unknown of the Senate
In short: in words everyone complains about popular abstentionism and political dirigism. But then they cheer for the muddy quagmire: votes for interposed parties and very broad agreements. What then to do with the electoral law? At the Room the measure passed. But the prime minister is considering proposing it again Senate preferences, together with gender equality which could appease the indomitable. The open vote in September should not lead the fearful into temptation. But then the text will return to Montecitorio, for trust. It’s make or break. There is no shortage of risks, but the temptation is strong. In the meantime, a signal must be given to the allies. Then, returning to the burraco, it would also be pure strategy. They will be complicated months. Relations with the United States, led by the controversial and quarrelsome Donald Trump. The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. An epochal economic crisis. Stability is an indisputable merit. But it’s not enough. A reform is needed to shore up the primacy. Giving power back to voters would become another medal to be proudly polished. Without considering a decisive detail. There Consult has already objected: preferences must be reintroduced. What if the new system was rejected by the Constitutional Court? The defeat would be unsustainable. Better a reform to boast about than a reform halved.
Giorgia concerns the cards. Observe the dark faces of the playmates. The deputy prime ministers are thoughtful. Matteo Salvinithe Northern League secretary, winks. Antonio Tajaniblue leader, look elsewhere. The prime minister reiterates: “If the amendment doesn’t pass, we’ll go to the vote.” The message for the 252 sailors in the first legislature is clear: if the government falls, the coveted annuity will also fail. The requirements for the pension will only accrue on April 14th. And no turkey is a candidate for Christmas dinner.
A skilled player, however, foresees the backhand. If the situation were to worsen, Meloni is ready for an electoral campaign against those who crave immobility: the pusillanimous, the slothful, the ocelots. But an imminent vote, evoked by ultras of the very governments such as Matteo Renzihides pitfalls. The power to dissolve the Chambers, for example, lies with the head of state. Sergio Mattarella could put yet another technician in charge. And then we would vote close to the budget. Unless we try to approve it by October. Not really an idea, anyway. The prime minister still hopes for a generous electoral maneuver, focusing on lower taxes for the middle class.
The advance in the polls and the balance of the center-right
What if things went smoothly instead? At that point it would be possible to carry on until the end of the legislature, in autumn 2027. A geological era. In the meantime, anything could happen. Starting from the impetuous advance of National Future. In just a few months he has already exceeded six percent in the polls. And now he’s aiming for ten. Brutally translated: without the party of Roberto Vannacciat the moment, is lost. The Melonians hoped that a possible call for a useful vote would disarm him. But the general now seems to be at the top of the hill. The worry is inevitable. Could it be part of the centre-right? Meanwhile, testing has begun. His “dirty dozen” voted for preferences, receiving equal courtesy from Melonians on such an amendment. The next move will be up to the former Folgore raider: the September vote of confidence in the Room. Beyond the bold and military metaphors, the insurmountable red lines he had drawn are beginning to fade. Now Vannacci is proposing a “public, written and verifiable” agreement. Starting, obviously, with identitarian remigration. An effective slogan, which could generically translate into a bitter fight against illegal immigration. Magistrates permitting of course, given that they have already attempted to oppose the centers in Albania. And then: revision of the Green deal, return to nuclear power, tax cuts. The government program, ultimately. «Futuro Nazionale belongs to the right-wing area, but it won’t be a spare tire» announces the general. The most difficult obstacle to remove does not seem to be so much the aversion of the Northern League members, abandoned between accusations and poisons, but rather of the Azzurri, who the MEP continues to attack in Brussels for the supposed truffism. And Marina certainly cannot forget the contemptuous comment on her role: «I don’t know that she is the head of a party. Or are we saying that Forza Italia is directed by the power of money and publishing?”.
Also to slow down the general’s progress, we are therefore thinking about an election day in spring 2027. The policies would be merged with the administrative ones. We will vote in Rome, Milan, Turin, Naples and Bologna: all led by the centre-left. It could be an advantage for the Wide fieldwhich however does not yet have a leader or even a program. Yes, Conte or Schlein? Both have high hopes. But the divisions between Piddini and Five Star voters seem irreconcilable. If Elly were to win the primaries, would Giuseppi’s followers vote for her? Unlikely. The new electoral law, however, requires the identification of a prime minister candidate. It could hail on the new olive tree. This is why the old foxes, from Dario Franceschini as usual Renzi, they think about a third candidate: the “ferryman”. Despite lively denials, she would still be the mayor of Genoa: Silvia Salis. His biography will be released in the autumn, just as the two suitors begin to argue. Much of the opposition is still rooting for a draw. Even with the new law, winners would have to exceed 42 percent to get the generous majority bonus.
The slug, therefore. Everyone inside. Another very government. Given the precedents, he could also participate Forza Italia. The perfect name, in the secret rooms, is already circulating: Paolo Gentiloninot surprisingly nicknamed “Er moviola”, former prime minister and European commissioner. At that point, in 2029, the choice of the next President of the Republic would be inevitable. No centre-right names, as Meloni hoped. Rather, a Mattarella-like. The candidates are already countless. And all of them have proven cathoprogressive faith. Because governments pass, but the Quirinale remains.
They are the Capitoline amphibians. Over an amatriciana and some good wine, they prepare traps and dream of reversals. They are those of the “Carnation Plan” against the prime minister, theorized by the Quirinale councilor Saverio during a dinner at the Borromini Terrace and revealed by the newspaper The Truth. Between left and right, the centerpiece always wins in Rome. An agreement, in the end, is found. For them it is a noble survival instinct. Instead Meloni calls it a swamp. Keep brooding. Drop or wait for a ride? And the crazy one? Is it better to use it or hold it in your hand?
The cards are the only point of argument with his symbiotic sister, as he told Panorama the same Arianna Meloni: «He didn’t want me to play: he said I wasn’t good enough, he made fun of me. I answered her badly.” But the anecdotal is wasted. «Giorgia is a weasel». “He hates losing.” “She’s a nerd there too.” There’s nothing to joke about. The burraco applied to politics. The decisive hand has just begun.
