The coffee crisis has already reached the counter. In Italy, the average price of espresso in large cities rose from 1.04 euros in 2021 to 1.25 in August 2025: 20.6 percent more. Behind those twenty cents there are not only energy, rent and work, but an increasingly expensive raw material. According to the Faobetween 2023 and 2024 international coffee prices increased on average by almost 40 percent; since then prices have fluctuated sharply, a sign of an extremely nervous market. In the’European Uniona 10 percent increase in international prices translates, in approximately 19 months, into an average price increase of 2.4 percent in shops.
The problem begins on the plantations. The world drinks almost exclusively two species: the Coffea arabicamore fragrant and delicate, and the Coffea canephoracommercially “Robusta”, more bitter, full-bodied and rich in caffeine. It’s a dangerous addiction: Arabica requires relatively cool climates, regular rainfall and high altitudes. In Brazilthe world’s leading producer, drought, heat and frost have damaged multiple crops; in Vietnamthe main producer of Robusta, the drought reduced 2023-2024 production by 20 percent and exports by 10 percent.
The vulnerability of the two global giants and the climate threat
Brazil And Vietnam they guarantee almost half of the world’s supply: all it takes is for a warmer season to hit one of the two countries for prices to tremble. Added to the extreme events are the impoverishment of soils, the costs of fertilizers and labor, transport made more expensive by geopolitical crises and growing demand. Meanwhile, diseases are advancing, in particular coffee rust and broca, a tiny beetle that thrives with rising temperatures. Furthermore, 80 percent of crops are entrusted to small producers, without resources to irrigate or purchase resistant varieties.
Arabica and Robusta are increasingly struggling to tolerate the new climate. Moving the plantations higher is not enough: the altitude only partially compensates for the greater heat and converting the few available mountain areas would cause deforestation and loss of biodiversity. Thus, various projections indicate that by 2050 about half of the areas currently suitable for Arabica could be lost. The genetic reserve from which to obtain better plants is also threatened: i Royal Botanic Gardens, Kewin England, classified 60 percent of the 124 wild coffee species examined as at risk of extinction.
The evolution of blends and the role of the new Robusta
The first countermeasure that we will see in action will be a greater presence of Robusta in the blends: no longer necessarily the rough one of the past, but varieties selected and processed to obtain more refined aromas. «In Brazil, researchers and growers are selecting varieties of Coffea canephora more resistant and pleasant, including Amazonian robusta”, he explains Fabiana Mesquita de Carvalhoneuroscientist fromState University of Campinas (Brazil) who studies the perception of flavors. «An espresso with more Robusta will probably have greater body, cream, bitterness and caffeine, but it may also develop nuances that are not valued today».
From Stenophylla to Excelsa: the forgotten species to save the cup
And then there are the types of coffee that have never been exploited. World Coffee Research coordinates research that tests varieties capable of maintaining yield and quality with high temperatures, drought and new diseases: since 2015, 31 have been compared in 29 experimental fields distributed in 18 countries. A possible answer is the Stenophyllacultivated in West Africa as early as the 19th century, then almost disappeared and was found in the wild in Sierra Leone in 2018. It can grow at average temperatures 6-7 degrees higher than those tolerated by arabica and, in tastings, showed a surprisingly similar aromatic profile. It could become a valuable product or provide useful genes to create heat-tolerant crosses.
Another candidate is the Coffea excelsarecognized in 2025 as a distinct species from Coffea liberica thanks to genomic studies at Kew. Cultivated again in Uganda and South Sudan, it produces a delicate coffee, with a flavor reminiscent of chocolate and a slightly acidic note. Liberica, on the other hand, grows in warmer and more humid climates and produces large beans with fruity, floral and sometimes smoky aromas.
None of these species, neither in their natural state nor after genetic modifications or crossbreeding, will be able to replace Arabica overnight. Yields are still uncertain, processing must be adapted and it takes years to multiply the plants. But the experiments and the first niche productions have already begun. Let us therefore expect an espresso with a different flavour, but not necessarily worse: more full-bodied with the increase in the percentage of Robusta, or rich in new aromas when Excelsa, Liberica and Stenophylla enter the blends. The important thing is not to expect the same coffee from just two species, when the planet on which they have to grow is no longer the same.
