The Montecarlo urn designed the path of the group stage for Inter, Napoli, Roma and Como. How did it go? Not very well, but the goal of the play-offs is within everyone’s reach.
The good news is that we can try to carry forward all our teams, including the Como rookie. The bad news is that the draw in Monte Carlo wasn’t exactly kind to Italy even if it provided suggestions that will become good stories to tell over the winter: Mourinho crossing paths with his former clubs Inter and Roma, with a return to the Olimpico never seen off at the time of his shock dismissal, or Fabregas setting foot as opposing coach at the Camp Nou which has seen him grow in football. All beautiful, but keeping to the bare minimum, also all very treacherous.
We are in the third year of the new format invented by UEFA to multiply Champions League matches and takings. By summarizing the first two experiences, it was understood that the quota to enter the magnificent eight that go directly to the round of 16 is 16 points, provided they are accompanied by a robust goal difference. To go to the playoff you need about ten, because in 2024 the cut line was positioned at 11 while last year at 9. And to stay in the noble half of the February playoff, which guarantees a softer pairing on paper, it is better to extend up to 13 points. These are the rules of engagement.
Inter, Liverpool and Borussia Dortmund again
Inter, who set out with the ambition of doing better than last season, and that shouldn’t be in doubt, and of being competitive for as long as possible, didn’t go very well. Away to the Bernabeu and Dortmund, like a year ago: Borussia Dortmund was a disguised top seed, in the sense of being relegated as the best of the second tier, and it would have been better to avoid it. Even Liverpool at the San Siro is something we’ve already seen for the Nerazzurri and it doesn’t evoke good thoughts for how it ended last winter.
Therefore, Chivu has the obligation to score a consistent number of points at home against Bruges, Shakhtar Donetsk and Stuttgart and away against Slovan Bratislava and Feyenoord. Then add what they can to avoid the trap of the costly double match in February against Bodo Glimt.
Naples, clear road towards the second round
It went better for Napoli who must erase the (sporting) shame of the 8 points and 30th place achieved by Conte. It’s true that there are Manchester City and Arsenal, but someone very strong from the first tier had to take him regardless and the English are also a great stimulus for Allegri’s group; the rest, however, promises well because in the last round the two weakest opponents came out (Viking and Sabah Baku), there is Bodo Glimt but at Maradona and not in the north of Norway and against Bruges, Porto and Villarreal, away from home, there is room to avoid problems.
Rome, nightmare away games
Gasperini cannot sleep peacefully after knowing the path of the first phase of the Champions League in which Roma returns after seven seasons of absence. Especially away, the Giallorossi will be called to compete against very hot environments: European champions PSG at the Parc des Princes, Manchester United in the temple of Old Trafford, the fearsome Fenerbache in Istanbul and AEK Athens. At home things went a little better: there will be a way to pay homage to Mourinho at the helm of Real Madrid and then Lille, Slovan Bratislava and Sporting Lisbon who climbed to the quarter-finals a year ago. Not simple. On the contrary.
Como, the debutante ball
Fabregas’ Como, built with no expense spared by the Hartonos, closes. Against Barcelona at Camp Nou it will almost be a graduation exam for an interesting team but without high-level European experience and the same goes for the matches at Sinigaglia against PSG and Manchester United. The home visits to Betis Sevilla, Feyenoord and Lens should not be underestimated either. Leipzig and AEK Athens remain and the feeling is that qualification for the playoffs is possible but far from a given.
