Two studies, one at national level and the other at community level, calculate the impact of an overly restrictive approach towards products containing nicotine.
They are on the plate over 180 thousand jobs in Europe. And almost 80 billion euros of GDP per year in the EU, of which, looking to 2030, up to 13.6 billion in our country. It all depends on what direction the Tpd, the Tobacco products directives, will take, the directive called to regulate tobacco products in the European Union.
I am supporting him two studies published today, one on a community scale, the other nationalwho investigated the possible effects of the decisions taken by Brussels according to two different approaches: one extremely restrictive, the other oriented towards regulate these products based on their different level of risk.
Specifically, the study «The Hidden Cost of EU Regulation»created by the European Policy Innovation Council (Epic), an important independent think tank based in Brussels, the difference between a highly restrictive scenario and one more proportionate to the risk it could be worth, at a European level, 79.6 billion euros per year182,165 jobs and 17.6 billion in investments in the period 2026-2030.
The second study, «Tobacco’s Economic Footprint in Italy and the Cost of a Restrictive Tpd Revision», conducted by the Catholic University of the Sacred Heart by Vincenzo Nardelli, estimates that in Italy in 2030 the gap between the two scenarios could reach 13.6 billion euros of GDP90,900 jobs and 4.4 billion euros in investments.
Although starting from different areas and scenarios, the two studies converge on one point: the impact of the new rules will depend on how they are defined. It will therefore be crucial to evaluate its effects in advance, distinguish between different product categories, guarantee certainty for investments and strengthen the fight against the illicit market.
The analysis methods
Going into detail, the first study examines the costs that can arise from the way in which a regulation is designed and applied. The analysis takes into consideration past cases and still open files to identify some recurring factors: rules introduced at the same time, rules that are not always clear, late corrections, disputes, incomplete preventive assessments and adaptation times not aligned with the investments required of companies.
The central point concerns the distinction between combustible cigarettes and non-combustible products. The same rules applied to different products could, according to the study, weaken the regulated market and push part of the demand towards illegal channels.
The second research focuses on Italy, where the tobacco and nicotine supply chain has a significant economic weight. In 2023, the sector contributed approximately 29.6 billion euros to the national GDP and supported 186,200 jobs across agriculture, manufacturing, suppliers, logistics, specialized distribution and related services.
In recent years, innovative nicotine-based products have taken on a growing role, coming to represent approximately 45 percent of the sector’s revenues. At the same time, Italy has consolidated itself as one of the European production hubs for these categories, also thanks to over a billion euros invested since 2014 in production plants and structures dedicated to innovation.
The risks of illegality
According to the analysis, a particularly restrictive revision of the TPD could impact the Italian economy through two main channels. On the one hand, higher compliance costs and less distinction between different products could make the country less attractive for production and investments. On the other hand, a contraction of the legal market could favor the shift of part of the demand towards illicit products.
In the projections presented, the restrictive scenario would lead to a reduction in GDP of 7.9 billion euros in 2030 and around 55,800 fewer people employed. Furthermore, a highly restrictive regulatory approach could compromising the process of progressive replacement of cigarettes and slow down the achievement of the European objectives for reducing the prevalence of smoking.
