For those suffering from celiac disease it is not a trend, it is not a current diet and above all it is not a choice: completely eliminating gluten from the diet still represents the necessary treatment to keep an autoimmune disease under control which, if not diagnosed and treated correctly, can cause important consequences. For a much larger segment of the population, however, the word “gluten free” printed on the package has taken on a completely different meaning in recent years, becoming synonymous with lightness, digestibility and, often without any clinical basis, a healthier diet.
It is also from here that one of the most interesting phenomena in the Italian food market arises. According to the 2026 large-scale distribution report dedicated to gluten-free, sales in large-scale retail trade reached 386.6 million euros, with a growth of 7.4% in value, supported not only by consumers who must follow a gluten-free diet for medical reasons, but also by those who choose it for reasons related to well-being or eating style.
Numbers that gain even more weight when compared with those of celiac disease. In fact, the latest annual report to Parliament from the Ministry of Health, relating to 2024 and published in April 2026, indicates 279,512 people diagnosed with celiac disease in Italy. Epidemiological estimates, however, place the actual spread of the disease at around 1% of the population, i.e. around 600 thousand people, thus still leaving over 300 thousand without diagnosis.
When “without” becomes a selling point
The point is naturally not that all the gluten-free products on the shelves are purchased by healthy people, because an important share of the market responds to a real medical need and because there are also other conditions in which the exclusion of gluten or wheat can be evaluated by the specialist. The interesting phenomenon is rather the expansion of the consumer base well beyond that of diagnosed patients.
A survey conducted by the Center for Training and Research on Consumption together with Assoutenti had already estimated in 2024 that the 21% of Italians habitually purchase gluten free productseven if only a portion of them had a documented clinical need. It is a sign of how gluten-free has fully entered the great universe of products free fromalong with alternatives without lactose, without added sugars, without preservatives or without certain ingredients perceived as problematic.
The commercial mechanism is simple: removing something from a product can make it immediately appear better, even when the eliminated ingredient does not represent any problem for the majority of the population. The wording “gluten-free” thus risks being interpreted as a general certification of healthiness, when in reality it describes a very specific characteristic of the food.
A gluten-free biscuit remains a biscuit, a gluten-free snack remains a snack and a gluten-free industrial pizza does not automatically become a dietary food. To recreate consistency, elasticity and characteristics that are normally guaranteed by gluten, some formulated products may use different combinations of starches, fats, sugars and other ingredients; this does not mean that they are necessarily worse than traditional alternatives, but simply that to evaluate them you need to look at the entire nutritional composition and not stop at the writing on the front of the package.
Gluten-free doesn’t automatically mean healthier
For those who are not celiac and do not have a diagnosed condition that requires the exclusion of gluten, there are no general indications that eliminating this protein automatically makes a healthier diet.
The most recent scientific literature actually draws attention to the overall balance of the diet: a gluten-free diet can be perfectly healthy when constructed correctly, especially by making room for naturally gluten-free foods such as rice, corn, buckwheat, legumes, fruit and vegetables, but it can become nutritionally less balanced when it simply translates into the systematic replacement of bread, snacks, biscuits and traditional baked goods with industrial gluten-free equivalents. The Italian guidelines underline, even for celiac patients, the importance of a diet that is not only gluten-free but balanced and with an adequate intake of fibre.
The most banal risk, for the consumer without medical needs, is therefore that of spending more without automatically obtaining an advantage.
The gluten free bill
And it is precisely on price that the gap continues to be evident. The Assoutenti-Crc survey, conducted on a basket of ten large-scale retail products, revealed an average cost of gluten-free products that was higher than 73% compared to traditional equivalents in the same categorywith very different differences depending on the food: for some types of pasta the gap reached around 110%, for frozen pizza it exceeded 35% and for some rusks it reached even higher values.
For those who buy gluten-free because they simply consider it healthier, it is a voluntary surcharge. For a person with celiac disease, however, it is a completely different story, because giving up those products is not an option.
Differences between sales channels also remain important. The national Federconsumatori Observatory found in 2025, for example, that the same 400 gram gluten-free loaf of bread cost on average 3.80 euros in large-scale retail trade and 5.95 euros in pharmacies or specialized shops, while for crackers the distance between the different channels became even more marked.
This is also why the National Health Service recognizes people diagnosed with celiac disease with a contribution towards the purchase of foods specifically formulated and included in the National Register: for the patient, gluten free does not belong to the wellness market, but to the daily management of a chronic pathology.
The market will continue to grow
The fact that the sector is destined to expand now appears difficult to question. Bread and baked products remain the heart of the category, while snacks, cereals, snacks, industrial pastries, pasta and frozen pizzas are contributing to expanding the presence of gluten-free in large-scale retail trade. The improvement in product quality, the increase in supply and the greater availability also in catering have also transformed what until a few years ago was a specialist segment into a stable consumer category.
However, estimates of the future size of the market differ greatly depending on the perimeter considered. Some sector analyzes arrive at hypothesizing values in the order of 1.6 billion euros for Italy by 2030, while other international research, starting from an Italian market estimated at 480 million dollars in 2024 and an average annual growth rate of 10.5%, outlines a more contained trajectory. More than the final number, therefore, it is the trend that is now evident: gluten free will continue to grow and a significant portion of the demand will probably come from consumers who are not celiac.
However, a fundamental distinction remains. For around 280 thousand Italians already diagnosed, and for the many people still waiting to discover they have celiac disease, gluten-free is a therapeutic necessity. For everyone else it may be a perfectly legitimate food preference, but it does not in itself have any nutritional pass: before the large print on the package come the ingredients, the nutritional values and, above all, the existence or otherwise of a real medical indication.
Also because do-it-yourself can have a paradoxical effect. Anyone who suspects they may have celiac disease should not eliminate gluten before completing the tests: diagnostic tests must in fact be carried out while the patient is still consuming gluten, otherwise the result may become more difficult to interpret. The diagnosis starts from serological tests and, in adults, is normally completed through the evaluation of the duodenal mucosa; in some selected pediatric cases it is possible to reach the diagnosis without a biopsy.
The true paradox of the boom, then, is all here: while hundreds of thousands of Italians live with a disease they don’t yet know they have, millions of consumers have already transformed its only therapy into a consumer choice.
