The conflicts at the gates of Europe, the instability of trade routes and the global rush for critical raw materials have given a violent acceleration to the reality of the markets. In this fragmented scenario, the circular economy definitively sheds its purely ethical or environmentalist aura to transform itself into a shield of national and industrial security. Treating wastewater, recovering energy from production processes and regenerating metals and components are no longer noble concessions to sustainability, but the conditions necessary to secure value chains, reduce dependence on imports and guarantee the economic autonomy of the Old Continent.
It is in this scenario that the analysis ofBrianzAcque Observatorywhich through a pool of experts monitored and cross-referenced the main studies, indicators and international trends to understand how circularity is evolving and which innovations are destined to guide it in the next decade. According to the latest global study by the international research institute DataM Intelligencethe global circular economy market is destined to go from 166.95 billion dollars estimated in 2025 to 491.35 billion in 2035: +194% in just ten years, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) estimated at 11.40%.
The most current challenges related to the circular economy
«The growth of the global market estimated at almost 500 billion dollars demonstrates that sustainability is the greatest investment driver of our century», he comments Enrico Boerci, president and CEO of BrianzAcque . «Wars, energy crises and tensions over raw materials are showing us how risky it can be to depend on foreign countries for essential resources. In this scenario, recovering what is wasted today is no longer just an environmental choice: it means reducing costs, recovering value and making our territories more resilient. This is the great opportunity of the circular economy: transforming waste, water, energy and materials already used into new economic resources.”
The Observatory’s reading is also confirmed in Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 of theInternational Energy Agencywhich highlights the risks linked to the growing concentration of supplies and export restrictions. For some strategic materials (including graphite, gallium and rare earths) over 90% of global refining is concentrated in a single country. In this scenario, recovering and reusing materials also means reducing exposure to external shocks.
But there is another, less visible cost: that of poorly used resources. The Global Circularity Gap Report 2026, developed by Circle Economy in collaboration with Deloitte Netherlandsestimated at approx 25.4 trillion euros a year is the value lost globally due to the inefficiencies associated with the linear economic model, a figure equivalent to approximately 31% of global GDP.
The transformation objectives in the coming years
Circularity therefore also means recovering economic value that is lost today, with benefits that can reach citizens and businesses directly. An example comes from European policies on ecodesign and energy labelling: according to the European Commission, by 2030 these measures could generate savings of between 473 and 736 euros per year for families compared to a scenario without such interventions. For businesses, however, there is no average saving valid for all sectors, but the principle is similar: using less raw materials, water and energy, recovering materials already purchased and extending the life of products means reducing waste and costs and limiting exposure to price volatility.
The transformation also concerns work. In the report Circular Economy, Trade and EmploymenttheInternational Labor Organization estimate in 5.96 million jobsdirect and indirect, linked to the international trade of recyclable, reusable, regenerated or made with secondary raw materials (MPS) goods.
The water node
For Italy the issue is particularly relevant. The Report on the Circular Economy in Italy 2026created by Circular Economy Network in collaboration with AENEAS, records a circular use rate of materials of 21.6%, but at the same time a strong exposure to international supplies: 46.6% of the processed raw materials come from abroad. Recovering material therefore not only means producing less waste, but also reducing dependence on imports and retaining more value within the country.
The same logic concerns water, an increasingly strategic resource also from an economic point of view. According to an analysis published in 2026 by Joint Research Centre of the European Commission, water demand in Europe is estimated between 140 and 200 billion cubic meters per yearwith energy and agriculture among the main sectors responsible for using the resource.
It is in this perspective that theBrianzAcque Observatory looks at the integration between water, waste and energy. The sludge generated by purification can transform from a disposal cost into a resource for producing bioenergy, biomethane, heat and renewable fertilizers. The water used in industrial processes can be purified and used again, while the heat produced by a plant can power other processes or district heating networks. It is the transition from an economy that pays to dispose of waste to an economy that competes to recover its value.
The 10 future trends for the circular economy
And it is from the intersection between the main international studies, the new economic and geopolitical scenarios and the experience gained in the field that the pool of experts of the BrianzAcque Observatory has identified the 10 macro-trends destined to guide the global circular economy in the next decade:
1. Digital Product Passport (DPP)
Each product will increasingly be accompanied by a true digital identity. Through QR codes, RFID tags and other traceability systems it will be possible to know the composition of the materials, the origin of the raw materials, the carbon footprint and indications for repair, reuse and recycling. A transformation intended to make circularity measurable along the entire value chain and to create a more transparent market for secondary raw materials.
2. Artificial Intelligence applied to automated selection
AI, computer vision, deep learning and advanced robotics are transforming waste treatment plants. Algorithms can identify and separate different plastic polymers, ferrous and non-ferrous metals and textile fractions with increasing speed and precision, increasing the quality of secondary raw materials and therefore their value to the industry.
3. Industrial symbiosis between water, waste and energy
Purifiers, waste treatment plants and energy systems increasingly tend to integrate. The sludge resulting from purification can contribute to the production of biogas and biomethane, while excess heat can be recovered to power district heating networks or other industrial processes. The waste from one supply chain becomes the raw material of the other.
4. Establishment of Product-as-a-Service (PaaS) models
From ownership to use. More and more companies are experimenting with models in which it is not the good that is sold, but the service that that good guarantees. If the product remains the responsibility of the manufacturer, it becomes economically convenient to build it so that it lasts longer and is repairable, upgradeable and easily disassembled.
5. Automotive Circular and Battery Passports
The transition towards electric mobility makes circular battery management strategic. Traceability systems for critical minerals such as lithium, cobalt and nickel are growing, together with the remanufacturing of components and “second life” projects, in which batteries are used for energy storage before final recycling.
6. Polymer upcycling and advanced recycling
To overcome the limits of traditional mechanical recycling, investments in advanced recycling technologies are increasing. Processes such as pyrolysis and depolymerization allow value to be recovered from even the most complex and contaminated plastics, expanding the quantity of material that can return to production cycles.
7. Modular ecodesign and disassembled architecture
Recycling begins with design. The products are designed considering maintenance, repair and end-of-life from the outset: fewer permanent glues and multi-material couplings that are difficult to separate, more modular, replaceable and recoverable components. The goal is to extend the life of the asset and preserve the value of the materials for longer.
8. Valorization of process waters and closed industrial circuits
In sectors with high water consumption – from textiles to chemicals, from paper to metallurgy – advanced membrane filtration and reverse osmosis systems allow the water used in processing to be purified and reintroduced into the production process, reducing withdrawals, discharges and companies’ vulnerability to water stress.
9. Predictive and digitalized reverse logistics
The logistics of the future will have to manage both the arrival of products on the market and the return of obsolete goods, reusable packaging and end-of-life goods with the same efficiency. Cloud platforms, IoT sensors and predictive analysis will make it possible to optimize these flows and guarantee companies a more stable supply of recovered materials.
10. Biorefineries and extraction of bio-nutrients from organic waste
Organic waste and scraps from the agri-food industry become raw materials for new supply chains. Biotechnological processes make it possible to obtain biomethane, chemical intermediates, bioplastics and molecules with high added value that can also be used in pharmaceuticals and cosmetics. The environmental system thus evolves towards the territorial biorefinery modelcapable not only of treating waste, but of generating new resources.
For the BrianzAcque Observatory, this is the transformation to observe in the coming years: the transition from an economy that pays to dispose of waste to an economy that competes to recover its value. A transformation in which environmental sustainability, resource security, industrial innovation and territorial economic development increasingly tend to coincide
