Other than duties. Donald Trump’s real goal is to weaken the American currency permanently with respect to the euro to push its exports to Europe. And also the “war” to China and the reduction of military commitment to fan part of this design
In God we Trustvulgarizing it one could say: that God send it to us good. They have been printing him for over 160 years on the ticket from a dollar that is with the flag the true symbol of the American unity and also the unit of measurement of the globe. Donald Trump wants to change the cards on the table: from the dollar that measures the world to a world -friendly world. For this he is making war on globalization with duties to return to the areas of influence by cutting the grass under his feet to the Chinese – the real opponents of the Tycoon – who have much profit on the American currency to which they made the charges to adjust the transactions while they produced in Yuan.
The autarchic turning point that the head of the sorceress (Make America Great Again who literally means making America again) is impressing the USA is so expressed by the duties (threatened, portrayed: the last chapter concerns Europe which should “benefit” by 10 percent of additional customs tariff) but the real challenge is on the dollar. Stephen Miran, heretical economist, used this formulette: to make America great you need a small dollar. Miran sees it like this: the fact that the dollar is the reserve currency of the world is a double damage: it keeps it constantly overrated and brakes the export of the stars and stripes industries and the Americans, having the dollars in the pocket, buy cheap what comes from abroad and above all from China: on the American ports they land cars, steel, food and wine products, fashion as and more than before.
In May the commercial scale had a deficit of 71.5 billion dollars: exports dropped to 279 billion, imports remained stable 350.5 billion dollars. Which means a thousand billion commercial deficit, less employment, minor tax revenues and more debt at the end of the year. To remedy Miran, it places the need for a dollar devaluation of up to 25 percent, counting on the fact that for energy and many raw materials the United States are self -sufficient.
The recipe against the skepticism of the Nobel prizes some results gives it: the GDP is growing 3.8 percent against the forecasts of 2.2, in June 147 thousand new jobs were created and inflation (thanks to the mini dollar) remains stable at 2.4 percent with Wall Street that breaks any record. Mirando suggests to Trump, and this explains the moves of the US President in the NATO, that the SuperDollaro was built through the role that the United States took place of “gendarmes of the world”: for this reason it is necessary that America reduces its military commitment. After the duties, after the declaration of arrears of the allies for the defense, after the creeping devaluation of the dollar, an agreement must arrive, which also includes to China, to regulate monetary exchanges. A “Bretton Woods 5.0”: if in 1971 Nixon declared the inconvertibility of the dollar in gold, Trump with the Mar in Lago’s agreement would like to declare that the dollar is no longer the coin of the world.
A precedent is there: it is the Plaza agreement – they are exactly 40 years old – that Ronald Reagan shakes with the then G5 (France, Germany, Japan, Great Britain) for an agreed devaluation of the dollar. The objections to this strategy are wasted. The Nobel Paul Krugman – Miran’s essay entitled User’s Guide to Restructuring The Global Trading System (manual for a renovation of the global trade system) – claimed that there is no possibility of such an agreement as a pamphlet. Barry Eichengreen on the Financial Times observed: “The uninterrupted dominance of the dollar is in fact – America is worth almost a third of the global GDP and regulates financial transactions – and in the strength of the relationships that the US have”. Trump, however, replies – as he said in the oval studio by mistreating Volodymyr Zelensky – “You Don’t have the Cards”, that is, I drive the game.
In any case, the head of the sorceress needs a compliant Federal Reserve, therefore apostrophe Jerome Powell who guides the central bank (still has a year of mandate) on a route contrary to that of Trump. If the design is able to revitalize American production thanks to the mini dollar that pushes exports and by virtue of the combined device-to-Dazi devaluation to curb import, the US president needs development supports with very low rates that serve to stimulate internal consumption and investments. And here there is a very narrow passage of the “Trumpnomics”. With the launch of the Big Beautiful Bill (fairytale accounts!) The president cuts taxes to the average class – the one ruined by the fall of Rust Belt where there were the great factories narrated by JD Vance in American Elegy, the book that earned him vice -president – but brings the debt to 40 thousand billion dollars! He needs to sell bonds and for this Powell does not want to lower the rates.
Another “heretical” by Trump’s “heretic” economist, Peter Navarro, on the contrary proclaims: “On duties and dollar there is no negotiation, we are charged to others what has been charged too long for too long”. Navarro for Elon Musk is an idiot and in truth he has some trait of singularity: he writes essays under pseudonym – Ron Vara – to praise his studies. However, the Americans have understood it well: “Only the Chinese can transform a cradle into a lethal weapon, the battery of a cell phone in a splinter that pierces the heart”. Therefore America First is convinced that the mini dollar is the lethal weapon against commercial opponents and unemployment.
The devaluation of the green ticket, however, poses serious problems to the rest of the world. He has lost against € 13 per cent from the beginning of the year and this affects even more than the duties. At the mini dollar, China tries to react by devaluing Renminbi, its coin that wants to adopt to all BRICS countries to develop an alternative payment of raw materials (from rare lands to agricultural products) in the Africa-Sud America-Est Asian-Russia circuit, but the last top of three weeks ago in Brasilia went very badly: there were no jinping nor in jin Putin.
Europe and in particular the ECB, uncertain, are looking at. From Sintra, where the central bankers found themselves at the end of June, Christine Lagarde confirmed that other cuts are possible on rates because inflation remains around 2 percent, but it seems incapable of facing the new scenario of the mini dollar which for us has only one advantage: it makes us pay less oil and gas and raw materials, but it blocks export; It means going towards deflation, towards less employment and lower investments. It is also less tourist flows, one of the pillars of Made in Italy, after the skiom of the car and fashion.
An economic cycle contraction is already measurable in France and Germany. The Governor of the Bank of Italy Fabio Panetta presses for Eurobonds to face the shock of duties and mini dollar. The idea is pairing with the one circulating in the Ursula von der Leyen commission to use part of the PNRR funds to cushion the blow to the production. So far, however, the ECB has not worried about rebalancing the euro-dollaro exchange rate, nor of having a monetary policy. The main tool to do this is to break down the rates even at the cost of having a little inflation, convincing the rioty German Isabel Schnabel – is in the European Central Bank as a lagard guard dog – that this is the road and moreover Powell himself, in response to Trump, said that if there was no “war” of the duties, the essay of American interest would have already cut him.
It is, therefore, a really hard and very long game that is played around the green ticket. And to explain it there are the real data. The dollar, in fact, is the coin of the world: on almost 12,400 billion currency reserves to guarantee the world trade just under 7 thousand are in dollars (the euro is worth only 2,200 billion, the Chinese coin 0.25 billion!) And also in interbank payments the green ticket covers over 50 percent of the transactions (the euro 22 percent, the Yuan the 3.8 as well as the Yen). And perhaps on one thing Trump when he sends the warranty notice on the duties to governments is right: “You don’t have the cards”.
