US forces are just waiting for the go-ahead from Commander in Chief, President Donald Trump. And this could come even before the second aircraft carrier, the USS Gerard Ford, reaches the Gulf. Meanwhile, the targets are defined, their position is constantly updated and transmitted to whoever will have to hit them
US forces are just waiting for the go-ahead from Commander in Chief, President Donald Trump. And this could come even before the second aircraft carrier, the USS Gerard Ford, reaches the Gulf. Meanwhile, the targets are defined, their position is constantly updated and transmitted to whoever will have to hit them. And with defensive missiles now deployed in the region to repel any Tehran retaliation on bases hosting American soldiers, the question is whether Trump will decide to pull the trigger. Not for something surgical and limited, more probably for a first large-scale attack similar to that of 1991, on the first day of Operation Desert Storm against Iraq, when pure bombers such as B-1 Lancers, B-2 Spirits and B-52s were also used.
The missile threat and the operational scenario
The Persian Gulf is only 250 km wide and while Israel was about 13 minutes’ flight away with the best missile defense system in the world, American naval units were only three or four minutes’ flight away from Iranian missiles. If Iran launched them from behind the Zagros chain, they would not be immediately detected by US radars and therefore satellites would have to be used. It couldn’t have been done before, the Patriot and Thaad systems intended to protect the allies still had to be unloaded and made ready for use. A useful time also so that even the non-borne jets, i.e. the F-15 and F-16 which have proven effective against Iranian Shahed-136 cruise missiles and drones, were sent to air bases in Jordan and Kuwait.
The aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln is escorted by four Arleigh Burke guided-missile destroyers equipped with the high-capacity Aegis missile defense system.
The first objectives: Iranian Navy and energy infrastructure
But unlike what happened with the attack against the nuclear program laboratories, this time the first targets will be the ships of the Iranian Navy (IRGC) and its submarines, and do so before surface units can plant mines to close the Strait of Hormuz and implement a retaliation against the international oil economy. Iran has 12 warships, 20 fast attack patrol boats and 19 submarines, but with satellite reconnaissance capabilities the United States will know exactly where each vessel is. And with the enormous firepower available to the US Navy it would not be a particularly challenging task to neutralize the Iranian Navy as they did back in 1988 in retaliation for Tehran’s attack on a US frigate.
Immediately afterwards, if not simultaneously, the oil refining plants located in Tehran, Abadan, Bandar Abbas and Isfahan will most likely be attacked. After all, the US Navy is a master at suppressing enemy air defenses and will do everything possible to reduce Iranian threats to its sailors and airmen. Immediately afterwards it will be the turn of the Tomahawk cruise missiles against the land bases of the Islamic Republic and the sorties of the F-35 and FA-18 fighter-bombers free to act.
Two levels of attack and the regime node
There are two levels of attack: one to force Tehran to dialogue, the other to destroy the regime, even if a beheading of the Iranian Supreme Leader with the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei still remains unlikely, since he would have already defined a plan for his succession. But this would still happen at a rate of attacks that could exceed one hundred per day for several weeks, without being able to exclude an operation to capture some government figure.
The risk of escalation and Tehran’s reaction
In practice, Washington would like a spontaneous regime change, but if the plan fails there would be the danger of pushing a nation the size of France into civil war with probable infiltration by ISIS. The main concern is how the regime might react to a possible attack: the ballistic missiles launched against Israel in the 12-day war last June caused more damage than reported in the media and, in the meantime, Tehran has been able to strengthen itself with batteries of Russian S-400 surface-to-air missiles, which are highly advanced missiles that have proven highly effective in shooting down US Himars missiles launched from Ukraine. Additionally, older but still useful S-300 missile batteries remain to be found and destroyed. Only as a second step could the Ayatollah regime activate the Popular Mobilization Forces, around 200,000 fighters capable of attacking American bases or assets in Iraq. And to unleash all this, all it takes is one order from the Tycoon.
