From Hezbollah’s stall to the silence of the Houthi, up to the strategic retreat of the Sciite militias in Iraq: the Iran allies’ network is crumbling under the shots of the Israeli offensive. While Tehran remains firm and weakened, the historical partners are divided between economic interests, prudence and lack of trust in the leadership of the Islamic Republic.
As he writes in his editorial on The truth the director Maurizio Belpietro, for years The leaders of the Iranian Islamic Republic they set up a vast network of armed formations in Middle Eastunited by the hostility towards Israel they United Statesin an attempt to consolidate regional influence and guarantee the survival of the system. Today, however, while theocratic power falters, its supporters appear more and more disintegrated.
In Lebanon, Hezbollah – considered for a long time the most solid element of the “Resistance axis» – He did not react with a single missile attack since the beginning of Israeli operations against Iran. The military structure of the group and its leadership have been hit hard by the Israeli army in the last year. Hamasthe main Palestinian armed actor, is reduced to a pale copy of himself after almost two years of conflict with Israelwith his decimated management e Gaza reduced to a pile of rubble.
In Iraq, Shiite factions related to Tehran They did not target American installations, in stark contrast to what happened in the past. Meanwhile in Yemen, the rebels Houthi – after launching some missiles to Israel last Sunday – then they had a tronight in silence. The brutality of the fighting pushed many of the allied groups of Iran to look with growing suspicion in the Jewish state, which has shown an overwhelming superiority on a military and intelligence level. Some militias, such as Iraqi, are now focused on enrichment in the energy sectors, having a lot to lose from an armed escalation. Others, like Hezbollahthey feel frustration for the support deficiency received by Tehran in the crucial moments of the conflict with Israel, according to what Arabic diplomatic sources in contact with the group leadership.
“For all these networks, today it is simply a matter of survival,” he told the Wall Street Journal (WSJ)Renad Mansour, Senior analyst and project manager Iraq Initiative at the British Study Center Chatham House. “Everyone includes the intensity and scope of military operations of this you according to analysts and diplomats, it is possible that the attitude of some pro-Iranian militias can change if Washington decided to support Israel in the raids against Tehran. The possibility of a US intervention directed in the conflict would risk feeding a wave of anti -American anger, causing violent reactions and strengthening solidarity towards Iran in the Islamic world.
The survival strategy comes after years of progressive downsizing of Iranian influence in the region, culminating in the heavy Israeli bombing last Friday. Already in January 2020, an attack with drone conducted by the United States had eliminated the general Qassem Soleimaniconsidered at the time the second most powerful man of the Islamic Republic DOpe the supreme guide, The Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Soleimani was the architect of Iranian support for regional militias. The offensive launched after the Hamas attack of 7 October 2023 – which caused about 1,200 deaths and the kidnapping of 250 people – inflicted further shots in Tehran. Israel has struck in a systematic way Hamas And Hezbollah, while theIran It remained largely inactive, avoiding providing concrete military support.
Between the end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024, a series of Israeli bombings beat the chain of command of the Body of the guards of the Islamic revolution In Damascus, compromising the Iranian presence in Syria. Tehran did not order his allies in Iraq to counter the advance of the rebellious forces which, last December, overturned the regime of Bashar al-Assadputting an end to over ten years of Iranian influence in the country.
“Many of these formations wonder if it is time to react or if it is rather convenient to remain on the sidelines, avoiding direct involvement in the conflict,” said Mansour. The Israeli attacks not only have inflicted material losses, hitting nuclear sites, oil structures, weapon deposits and energy plants, but also humiliated Tehran on a symbolic level. According to the sources, what has most shocked the Allies of Iran is the demonstration of the level of penetration of Israeli intelligence: many of the operations were conducted using drones launched from within the Iranian territory, thanks to information obtained on sensitive objectives and key figures of the military and security apparatus. “I imagine that for the Houthi it was a trauma to discover how much the Iranian security apparatus is vulnerable to Israeli intelligence,” he always observed at the WSJ Elisabeth KendallMiddle East expert and director of Garton College by Cambridge. «They are probably saying: it’s time not to give the eye, to move caution. If we expose ourselves, we become targets ». In Iraq, the leaders of the Sciite militias adopt growing precautions: they use temporary phones, they continually change number and keep away from the Internet. “They are all intimidated by Israel,” he reiterated Mansour.
Hezbollah He publicly condemned the Israeli attacks against Iran, but according to a source close to the group management, Tehran is perfectly able to manage direct confrontation without requesting the intervention of the allied militias. For the moment, the Lebanese organization remains prudent. The priority seems to be the internal reconstruction: to strengthen the structure and restore financial support. Diplomatics also report persistent tensions linked to the lack of Iranian aid during recent clashes. On the eve of the Israeli offensive, the number two of Hezbollah, Naim qassemhas given a television interview by presenting himself as a political leader, without Iranian symbols or images of the Supreme guide Behind him: a signal, according to some observers, of a possible distancing from Tehran. After Israel hit and killed Hassan Nasrallahmaximum exponent of Hezbollah, some members of the organization have accused Iran of not having done enough to protect him. Some criticisms have also been addressed to Iranian security services, considered guilty of serious flaws in intelligence. In Iraq, where numerous scite militias are operated in Tehran, alone Kataeb Hezbollah He took a public position, declaring on Sunday that Iran does not need their armed support to face Israel. However, he threatened retaliation against US objectives if Washington intervened directly in the conflict. Wednesday evening, the Israeli defense forces killed Mohammad Ahmad Khreiss, commander of the anti -artear unit of Hezbollahhitting him in an outpost of the Shiite group located in Chebaa, in the region of Nabatieh, in the south of Lebanon. During the conflict, Khreiss He was responsible for numerous attacks against Israel, including the one with anti -tank missiles on the mountain in April 26, 2024 Sharif suod. The commander also continued to coordinate terrorist operations in the southern area of Lebanon, in violation of the existing agreements between Beirut And Jerusalem . «Israeli defense forces continue to monitor and neutralize the attempts to Hezbollah To strengthen its offensive capacity against Israel, taking advantage of the ongoing conflict with Iran as a coverage “, reads a military note. “We will continue in the elimination of any threat to the security of the state of Israel”
Diplomatic sources indicate that Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani He is exerting pressure so that the militias are maintained outside the clash and contain incendiary statements. Many of the Iraqi militia commanders, now integrated into the country’s institutional system, benefit from public procurement and the revenues of the oil industry. While remaining faithful to Iran, their choices are increasingly influenced by personal interest. “In a sense, they capitalized internal stability and the surge in the price of oil to build real economic empires,” Mansour explained. As for the Houthidespite their anti-American and anti-Israeli rhetoric, they have never been totally subordinated in Tehran. Their arsenal was strongly reduced by US aerial raids between March and April. “Their approach is first of all pragmatic,” said Kendall. «They will not sacrifice their lives by order of the Ayatollah. They understand what it really is convenient for their interests ». According to what reported by Kan News, new information spread on Thursday by the security authorities reveal that the Commander of the Ribelli Houthi forces in Yemen would have survived an attempt to eliminate by Israel, but would have suffered serious injuries. Three days ago, a source of security had confirmed that the goal of the attack launched in the capital of Sana’a was Mohammad Abd al-Karim al-Raumiri. Over the past week, the Israeli Navy hit the port of Hodeidahin Yemen. The media affiliated to the Houthi movement reported that the maritime airport would be targeted on two distinct occasions. According to some analysts, the Houthi are waiting for the appropriate time to intervene, preferring currently to adopt a prudent attitude, while Tehran evaluates possible diplomatic ways. However, these options seem to have gone away after the attacks of this morning against hospital facilities in Israel.
