Because Washington might not mind a center-right majority in Europe

As the European elections approach, it is perhaps interesting to ask how they are viewed by the United States. Let's start by saying that, at least for now, this is not an election that is very present in the debate across the Atlantic. On the other hand, we must not forget that American political dynamics are almost exclusively revolving around the presidential elections next November: in such a situation, it is clear that the European elections have fundamentally taken a backseat. Yet, this does not mean that there is a lack of interest across the Atlantic.

The hypothesis that a European majority without socialists could emerge from the polls is considered less likely today than it was a few months ago. Nonetheless, this is not an impossible scenario, nor can it be ruled out that it could be viewed with sympathy by those in Washington. Of course, some will think this is counterintuitive, given that the Biden administration, a Democrat, is not ideologically in tune either with the ECR or with Identity and Democracy or, probably, with some sectors of the EPP.

Yet be careful: the reasoning they might make in Washington may not be ideological but geopolitical in nature. In other words, the Russian invasion of Ukraine led to a need for unity in an Atlanticist sense. A compaction that the PSE will hardly be able to guarantee in the long term. Various national alignments that make up this party have historically presented bland (if not downright friendly) positions towards Russia, Iran and China. This is an element that certainly does not escape foreign policy circles in Washington.

A similar discussion applies to Emmanuel Macron, around whose figure the Renew Europe reality has coalesced: the positions on European defense of the tenant of the Elysée are liked up to a certain point by the Americans, given that they are considered problematic in terms of strengthening NATO. Furthermore, the progressive consolidation of relations between Paris and Beijing is not very well received in Washington.

To this it must be added that one of the most Atlanticist leaders of the Old Continent, the Polish president Andrzej Dudarecently had a meeting with Donald Trump: the two are close allies and, according to various rumors, it would have been right Duda to push the Republican candidate to give his assent to the new American aid package to Kiev. We remember that Duda it is an expression of the Law and Justice party, which – despite having recently lost the government of Poland – remains a pillar of the ECR and a leading interlocutor in the eyes of Washington.

In short, it remains to be demonstrated that the Americans are truly rooting for a re-edition of the “Ursula majority”, also because such a scenario would be fundamentally in the interests of that Franco-German axis, which is certainly not on granitically Atlanticist positions. Perhaps never before will geopolitical dynamics and considerations be able to influence the formation of a new European majority like this year. And in Washington they are more than aware of it.