Caracas was the beginning. The tycoon has a clear plan to isolate the Brics and return the dollar to the center of the international network.
As the Khomeinist regime continues to be heavily shaken by the protests, tensions between Washington and Tehran are increasing. «Iran is in big trouble. I have stated forcefully that if they start killing people as they have done in the past, we will intervene; we will hit them very hard where it hurts the most,” he said Donald Trump Friday, and then added: «This doesn’t mean deploying men on the ground, but hitting hard where it hurts most. We don’t want this to happen.” “The USA supports the courageous Iranian people”, the US Secretary of State also stated yesterday, Marco Rubio. A position, that of Washington, which infuriated the ayatollah Ali Khameneiwho, in addition to accusing Trump of “arrogance”, put i pasdaran in a state of maximum alert.
American caution and the Venezuelan scenario
Yet despite the significant increase in US pressure on the Islamic RepublicTrump has not yet abandoned a certain caution. On Thursday, the American president made it known that he was not yet ready to receive the Iranian crown prince, Reza Pahlaviwho had offered to lead a possible transition of power in Tehran. “I think we should let everyone go out and see who emerges,” Trump said. It is therefore possible to hypothesize that the tenant of the White House aims, at least in the short term, at a «Venezuelan solution» for Iran. If Khamenei were to fall, the American president could, that is, try to “domesticate” a piece of the old regime, probably looking at the armed forces. This does not mean that Trump completely rules out future support for Reza Pahlavi. If anything, it means that, in the short term, it could leverage an intermediate scenario: as done in Venezuela, where, instead of supporting María Corina Machadohas chosen as interlocutor, at least for now, the deputy of Nicolás Maduro, Delcy Rodriguez.
Iranian nuclear power and the Abraham Accords
Beyond his historical skepticism towards the operations of nation buildingTrump wants to minimize the risk of instability in both Caracas and Tehran. And, coming specifically to Iran, he looks with interest at two main dossiers: that nuclear and that oil. As regards the first, it is no mystery that the American president aims to sign a new agreement with Tehran that will prevent Iran from achieving theatomic weapon. An objective, this, which also tends towards Israelis hey Saudis. The resolution of the Iranian nuclear issue is therefore, in Trump’s eyes, one of the essential preconditions for relaunching and expanding Abraham Accords: those agreements whose future appears at risk today for at least three reasons. The tensions between Riad And Jerusalem on the Palestinian state, the fibrillations between Saudis and Emirates on Yemen and on Sudanwithout finally neglecting the growing instability that is recorded within the Syria. In this sense, in the event of Khamenei’s (probable) fall, the American president hopes for a stable government which, when put adequately under pressure, will allow him to reach a nuclear agreement as soon as possible.
Oil, dollar and challenge to the Brics
But also the second dossier, that one oilis particularly paid attention to by Trump. Which links, in some way, the Iranian question to that Venezuelan. The day before yesterday, the American president stated that the USA is ready to sell to China And Russia crude oil from Caracas, which ended up under US control following the capture of Maduro. This is a sign of the fact that, in addition to the fight against drug trafficking and energy supply needs, the operation Absolute Resolve was also conducted to reaffirm the dominance of the dollar in oil transactions and to disarticulate i Brics on the energy and financial front. It is true that Venezuela is not formally part of this bloc, but it is equally true that Maduro had solid relations with three members of the Brics, such as Beijing, Fly and the same Tehran. Recall, incidentally, that China was the main buyer of Venezuelan crude oil just as it is the main buyer of Iranian crude oil. In both cases, the People’s Republic circumvented US sanctions and made payments in renminbi. Which, together with the race forgold of the last two years, was and is a source of concern for Washington.
Energy, inflation and the anti-Beijing geopolitical game
Now, the former president of the Council of Economic Advisers of the White House and current member of the Board of Governors of the Fed, Stephen Miranhas repeatedly argued for the need to preserve the global status of the dollar. And in fact, already in January 2025 Trump threatened the Brics with heavy blows dutiesif they continued to carry out their intentions de-dollarization. It is therefore highly likely that the American president also aims to control Iranian crude oil, to reaffirm the supremacy of the dollar as a function anti Chinese. But be careful: Beijing is also in Washington’s sights on another front. By unblocking and confiscating the oil of Caracas and (perhaps) Tehran, Trump aims to further collapse the cost of energy: which, in addition to fighting theinflation American in view of mid-term electionsaims to weaken US dependence on green technology. Technology that is notoriously largely in the hands of Chinese. Hence the recent announcement of the American farewell toUnfccc takes on a clear geopolitical connotation with an anti-Beijing function.
