Three teams qualified for the playoffs and one at risk of elimination. This is how Italy enters the final round of the first phase of the Champions League
We have some certainties and a great unknown. With one match to go until the end of the Champions League group stage, everything will be played on the super Wednesday at the end of January, Italy knows it has at least three teams qualified for the playoffs in February while the fourth, which is Napoli with the scudetto sewn on their chest, is called to a feat not to say goodbye to the company much earlier than expected.
The victory against Mourinho clarified the path of Spalletti’s Juventus: they will be play-offs with a very small hope of entering the top eight. This is an unrealistic hypothesis, because by winning in the Principality against Monaco the Bianconeri would rise to 15 points, almost certainly insufficient to take a direct place in the round of 16. The reasoning must also be extended to Inter, despite the Nerazzurri having a slightly better goal difference (+6 versus +4) but also a calendar that proposes a trip to Borussia Dortmund.
By letting Athletic Bilbao come back from home, however, Atalanta threw away almost everything good they had done before. The Bergamo team could have celebrated a historic achievement and, instead, they are now hanging on to a large victory in Belgium against Union Saint-Gilloise with a possible goleada because the 16-point achievement alone does not guarantee anything given that the competition is fierce and they have a clear advantage in terms of goal difference.
Is it a positive or negative balance? Everything revolves around Napoli. The Neapolitans’ situation is compromised and not up to expectations, as Antonio Conte honestly recognized by saying that the Neapolitan path was not Champions League-worthy. Chelsea arrives at Maradona and is currently the last qualifier in the G8. Ergo, he has no gifts or voltage drops to give to the opponent of the moment.
If Napoli wins, they enter the playoffs. If he loses he cannot improve the current situation (25th) and is out. If they draw, it depends on the results of the others because many can reach (or remain) 9 points and it will depend on the gap between goals scored and conceded. That of the Neapolitans is -5, not the maximum. Trying to summarize, Conte must hope that the matches in Munich (9 points, challenge Juventus) and PSV (8, Bayer Monaco) go without surprises and that Marseille (9) do theirs against Bruges (7 and goal difference -5).
It is difficult to trust in the sporting suicides of Bayer Leverkusen (9, Villareal), Olympiakos (8, Ajax) and Athletic Bilbao (8, Sporting Lisbon but starting from a goal difference of -2). These are the ones who currently precede the Italian champions. Behind them, in addition to the aforementioned Bruges, watch out for Pafos who have 6 points (-6) but host Slavia Prague while Copenhagen (against Barcelona), Bodo Glimt (Atletico Madrid) and Benfica (Real Madrid) have prohibitive commitments on paper.
The UEFA ranking, meanwhile, gives no hope of fifth place in the next Champions League. England are on the run, uncatchable, and ahead of Italy there are also Poland, Germany and Spain with an advantage, in the case of the Germans, of more than one point. All is not lost yet, but we need to change pace quickly.
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