From 1 October 2026, a significant part of the second-hand market risks suddenly becoming much less attractive. Not because those cars will stop working. But because, in many cities in Northern Italy, they may stop being able to travel on weekdays. The issue is that of Euro 5 diesels, cars generally registered between 2011 and August 2015, which from next year will be affected by the new structural restrictions on circulation in Lombardy, Piedmont, Veneto and Emilia-Romagna.
The issue doesn’t just concern those who already own one of these cars. It concerns above all those who today are thinking of buying a used one, perhaps attracted by an apparently affordable price, by a still valid model or by a premium brand that retains a certain charm on the market. The risk, however, is clear: paying full price for a car destined to lose value and, in the worst cases, barely usable for daily travel.
In Lombardy, the topic is particularly concrete. From 1 October 2026, the limitations for Euro 5 diesel cars will come into force in the urban areas of municipalities with more than 100,000 inhabitants: Milan, Brescia, Monza and Bergamo. The closure will apply on weekdays, from Monday to Friday, excluding midweek holidays, from 7.30am to 7.30pm. For those who enter the city every day to work, study or accompany their children, it is therefore not a bureaucratic detail, but a change destined to weigh on daily life.
One in seven used cars is already at risk of devaluation
The phenomenon is captured by the latest analysis by CARFAX, a company specializing in vehicle history, carried out on license plate checks carried out on the Italian portal between 1 January and 3 May 2026. Of over 100,000 vehicles verified, more than 14,000 belong to the Euro 5 environmental class: 14% of the total, practically one car in seven.
It is a fact that tells much more than a simple statistical photograph. It means that, while the legislation is approaching, the market continues to move a significant quantity of cars which could soon become problematic for those who live or work in the main urban centers of the North. The purchase price, in these cases, can no longer be evaluated solely on the basis of make, model, mileage and general conditions. The environmental class becomes a decisive element.
Until recently, to buy a used car it was enough – at least in theory – to check the engine, bodywork, maintenance, kilometers and number of owners. Today it is no longer enough. Before even sitting down at the negotiation table, you need to understand if that car can really be used where it is needed. Because a Euro 5 diesel may still seem perfectly convenient on paper, but become a bad deal if those who buy it have to enter Milan, Brescia, Monza, Bergamo, Turin, Bologna, Verona or other centers affected by the restrictions every day.
Older cars, with more mileage and often with critical histories
The problem is not just regulatory. He is also a mechanic and salesman. According to CARFAX data, the Euro 5 cars checked have an average age of 12 years, compared to 9 years for the general sample. They also traveled an average of 146,000 kilometres, almost 30,000 more than the overall average, which stands at 117,000 kilometres.
Not only that. 64% of the Euro 5 vehicles analyzed have at least one risk factor in their history, compared to 52% of the total vehicles checked. Even more significant is the data on accidents and damage: 57% of the Euro 5s had documented accidents or damage, compared to 43% of the general average.
The photography is clear. Many of these cars have reached the last part of their commercial life cycle just at the moment when the new traffic rules risk making them less desirable. And this is where the trap opens for the buyer: buying a used Euro 5 vehicle today without checking its environmental class, actual mileage, previous damage and residual value means exposing yourself to a double loss. On the one hand, the limit on circulation. On the other, a possible accelerated devaluation.
The most exposed brands: Fiat leads, but the issue is also premium
Among the brands most present in CARFAX checks on Euro 5, Fiat leads the ranking with 13% of the total. Followed by Audi with 10%, BMW with 9%, Mercedes with 8% and Volkswagen with 8%. Together, these five manufacturers account for almost half of the Euro 5 cars tested.
The most interesting data, however, concerns the risk factors. The highest percentages are recorded among the German premium brands: BMW reaches 78% of vehicles with at least one anomaly in the history, Audi at 77%, Mercedes at 74%, Volkswagen at 65%. Fiat, despite being the most represented brand, stops at 60%.
The paradox is evident. Premium cars tend to retain value and desirability for longer, so they remain on the market even after many years and many kilometers. But this very commercial longevity can become a double-edged sword. A German sedan or a premium Euro 5 SUV may seem like a bargain because they cost much less than new, but they often bring with them high mileages, expensive maintenance and a history that needs to be checked very carefully.
For this reason, when faced with a used premium Euro 5 diesel, the question must not just be “how much does it cost?”. It has to be: where will I be able to use it, for how long, with what risk of devaluation and with what history behind it?
The models under the lens: Panda, 500, Giulietta, Golf and BMW X Series
Going into the details of the models, the Fiat Panda is the most checked Euro 5 car of all: it represents 3% of the total checks and 25% of the checks relating to the Fiat brand. The Fiat 500 follows, also at 3%. They are two popular models, very widespread, easy to resell and often sought after by those who want a compact city car. Precisely for this reason, however, checking the environmental class becomes fundamental: a Euro 5 diesel city car, if used every day in an urban center subject to restrictions, can lose much of its usefulness.
The most significant case, however, is that of the Alfa Romeo Giulietta. According to the analysis, 59% of all Giuliettas verified on carfax.it belong to the Euro 5 class. A very high concentration, which makes the model particularly sensitive to the issue of restrictions. The Giulietta remains a beloved car, still sought after by fans of the brand and those looking for a compact car with personality. But precisely for this reason it risks becoming one of the cars to check most carefully before purchasing.
The Volkswagen Golf and BMW’s X Series models complete the list. Here too the situation is similar: they are cars that maintain a certain appeal on the market, but which, if diesel Euro 5, can turn into a delicate purchase for those who live in the regions of the Po basin.
Among the models analyzed, the average age remains around 12 years, while the mileage varies from 114,000 kilometers of the Fiat 500 to 167,000 kilometers of the BMW SUVs. The share of vehicles with risk factors is also high: it ranges from 53% of the Panda up to 66% of the BMW X Series models.
What cars not to buy blindly
The point is not to demonize all Euro 5 diesels. In some cases they may still make sense, especially for those who live outside lockdown areas, use their car on extra-urban routes or need an economical vehicle for a limited period. But buying a Euro 5 diesel today without checking is a gamble.
Caution must be maximum when the car is offered as an “opportunity” in Lombardy, Piedmont, Veneto or Emilia-Romagna; when the price seems too convenient compared to the market; when the seller minimizes the issue of environmental class; when the model is a Panda, a 500, a Giulietta, a Golf or a premium German diesel SUV; when the mileage well exceeds 140,000 or 160,000 kilometres; when the maintenance history is unclear or any accidents are not documented.
The real advice, rather than “don’t buy”, is “don’t buy blindly”. Before signing, you must check the environmental class on the booklet, check compatibility with the rules of the municipality where you live or work, evaluate any systems such as Move-In where available and above all reconstruct the history of the vehicle. A car can appear fine on a test drive and still hide accidents, anomalous changes of ownership, inconsistent mileage or administrative constraints.
The block changes the real value of the car
The used market often lives on a very simple perception: if the car works, it’s worth it. But the environmental transition is changing this logic. A car can run great and still be worth less because it can no longer get into the cities where it is really needed.
The ban on Euro 5 diesels is therefore not just an environmental measure. It is an accelerator of devaluation. Those who already own a car of this type will have to understand whether to keep it, sell it before the market fully incorporates the risk or use it only outside restricted areas. Those who are purchasing must negotiate the price taking into account not only the condition of the car, but also its real residual life.
Marco Arban, Director of Business Development in Europe at CARFAX, summarizes the transition thus: «The ban on Euro 5 diesel represents an important and now inevitable transition for the Italian used car market. Mobility is changing and the market will only have to adapt.” According to Arban, those who buy a second-hand car must rely on real information, because the license plate check not only indicates the environmental class, but can reveal decisive elements such as previous accidents and inconsistencies in mileage.
It’s the new second-hand survival manual. It’s no longer enough to look for the right car. We need to look for the car that will still be able to circulate.
