After days of study, with more and more OTH radar signals sweeping the air – they are those that see beyond the horizon limited by the curvature of the earth and some are also heard from Italy – as well as the growing disturbance of GPS signals from the Israeli and US sides , but also the use of satellites and spy planes, that yesterday was the day of Iranian revenge was almost certain.
The Iranian operations began with the assault on the MSC Aries merchant ship yesterday 90 km north-east of Fujairah, near the Strait of Hormuz – a Portuguese ship but owned by an Israeli entrepreneur – or in retaliation for the attack on the embassy Iranian attack in Syria occurred on April 1st. Then, yesterday evening, 9.40pm in Italy, the direct retaliation against the territory of Israel was launched. Therefore a predictable and expected move, so much so that at the moment the damage toll appears to be extremely limited, with only two military positions hit in the Golan and one injured.
In these cases it is always difficult to believe the first declarations, however it is confirmed that Israeli, American (the Eisenhower aircraft carrier is in the Red Sea), English and French military aircraft participated in a real – but expensive – “pigeon shoot” against the many but slow drones that Iran has sent to hit Israel. The vast majority of these, with a flight of more than seven hours and no defense against air attacks, were neutralized at a great distance from their targets. The estimate is of 300 effectors (missiles and drones) sent from Iranian territory to Lebanese territory controlled by Hezbollah (towards the Golan), of the Shahed type, the same ones that Russia uses against Ukraine, but also Kheibar cruise missiles ( hypersonic) and Soumar. Israel's anti-aircraft defense then came into operation, consisting of the now famous Iron Dome system, integrated by the similar Arrow and Sling. The result is that although the attack was carried out with the intention of saturating the defenses, i.e. firing large quantities of effectors so that some targets would still be hit, in fact Iran would have managed to center military positions in the Negev bases (Ramon and Nevatim).
From Telegram channels we also learn that some Shiite militia groups acted by launching rockets from Iraq and Syria. However, one fact must be clarified regarding the use of Kheibar hypersonic missiles: these are very difficult to intercept in the final phase of their flight, but the initial trajectories and at high altitude are more predictable and therefore it becomes essential to have efficient radars and to keep some ” guards” who can intervene at any time to counter them. And that's what's happening: Eisenhower is constantly keeping two pairs of F/A-18 Super Hornets ready and flying for this purpose and, of course, for its own protection.
The plausible question is “what will happen now”, with the US defending Israel and not attacking Iran (there are elections, Biden could win a war that isn't his and at the same time lose the administration, a bit like Churchill in World War II), while Tehran had no choice, it must pursue the idea of revenge for the killing of Iranian Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, one of the leaders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or lose face as the region's superpower .
The plausible action is today in the hands of Benjamin Nethanyau, who, although advised by the US not to continue with the escalation, now has every reason, potential and opportunity to pulverize the feared uranium enrichment system intended for the Iranian nuclear offensive. No more “proxy” clashes between the two nations, since April 1st Israel and Iran have effectively been at war with each other. Tehran exploits the unpopularity of the Israeli leader, who has public opinion against him, exploits the allies spread across a territory that the West has never managed to control and finally the lack of a Western coalition which does not act because it fears unleashing a new decade of attacks.
