The Tigrayan rebels have resumed hostilities against the Addis Ababa government, which, in turn, points the finger at Eritrea
Instability is growing in the Horn of Africa. In fact, Ethiopia risks sinking into civil war again. In recent days, the Tigray rebels have decisively resumed hostilities against the Addis Ababa forces, taking control of three airports. Meanwhile, they also launched attacks in the Amhara and Afar regions.
The Tigray regional government presented its moves as a “defensive war”, claiming that Ethiopian troops would attack first. This version was decisively rejected by Getachew Red, advisor to the prime minister of Addis Ababa, Abiy Ahmed.
Not only that. On September 20, seven armed groups, including the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, created the Alliance of Ethiopian People’s Forces for Survival: a formation whose aim is to overthrow the current government in Addis Ababa.
Meanwhile, the Chief of Staff of the Ethiopian Army, Field Marshal Berhanu Jula, accused Eritrea of financing armed groups against Ethiopia: an accusation that the Asmara government rejected.
It was 2018 when Abiy became prime minister. The person concerned soon entered a collision course with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front that he had de facto dominated Ethiopian politics for nearly thirty years. The situation escalated and, in November 2020, a bloody civil war broke out between Ethiopian forces, aided by Eritrea, and Tigrayan rebels. The conflict only ended in November 2022 with an agreement signed in Pretoria. An agreement which, however, has always creaked.
According to Addis Ababa, the Tigrayans did not hand over their weapons as had been agreed. The rebels, for their part, accused the Ethiopian government of failing to guarantee the return of the displaced, while fighters from the Amhara region settled in western Tigray. At the same time, Tigrayans have returned to rejecting federal authority. All this, while, last year, Al Jazeera reported that their front was internally split between a pro-Ethiopian and a pro-Eritrean faction.
In short, it seems that all these issues are now coming to a head. And it is possible that the Pretoria agreement is now to be considered a dead letter.
But be careful: the problem does not only concern Ethiopian territory. As mentioned, the tension between Addis Ababa and Asmara has risen again: the Eritrean government fears the ambitions of Adiy, who has long aimed to guarantee Ethiopia access to the sea. Without forgetting the civil war in Sudan.
Second Middle East EyeAsmara would support the Sudanese army together with Egypt, Türkiye and Saudi Arabia, while Addis Ababa would support the United Arab Emirates in their support of the Rapid Support Forces. All this therefore suggests that, sooner or later, an armed conflict could break out between Asmara and Addis Ababa: a scenario that would, in this case, enormously increase instability in the Horn of Africa.
