After lively days in Parliament on the issue of the superbonus decree and the government amendment that agitated Forza Italia, the 110% bonus returns to be the protagonist also within the EU's spring economic forecasts published today. Focus Italia the Commission has put in black and white how “the debt/GDP ratio is destined to increase in 2024-2025 due to a less favorable interest growth differential and the delayed effect of incentives for home renovation”. The Superbonus will still have a negative effect on public finances in the future “since the tax credits for home renovation, which had already been recorded according to the accrual principle in the deficit, will begin to be fully reflected in the cash flow”. This is one of the factors, concludes the Commission, which “is destined to lead to an increase in the debt/GDP ratio to 141.7% of GDP by 2025”. The government's latest moves to further tighten the limits of the super bonus are therefore viewed positively by the Commission given that the measure “from the point of view of Italian public finances certainly proved to be very, very dangerous”, and “the government is right to remedy it”, stated the EU Commissioner for the Economy, Paolo Gentiloni. It is interesting to underline that the EU Commission itself, when Italy, with the Conte government, introduced the superbonus measure and then extended it, had applauded the measure, without even hypothesizing that a 110% bonus was perhaps a bit too much. too risky, for a country like Italy which has always had an extremely high debt. Obviously we know that the EU Commission cannot go into the merits of a decision that is up to the government of the day, but given that opinions and advice in the various countries. reports (see: inserting a tax on the house) have not been lacking, it would have been appropriate not to wait for the 2024 government to argue that it is “good to remedy this”. The Minister of Economy, Giancarlo Giorgetti, also once again expressed his opinion on the issue, underlining how the “debt, unfortunately, will be weighed down in cash in the coming years by the negative effects of the superbonus. On the other hand, the European data on the debt/GDP ratio do not incorporate the effects of the very recent measures which will have positive effects on the accounts”.
Growth, inflation and unemployment: Italy promoted
Setting aside the superbonus issue, the EU's spring economic forecasts have revised Italian GDP growth estimates upwards: 0.9% in 2023 and 0.9% percent in 2024, while it should stand at 1.1%. in 2025. In the previous winter economic forecasts, the Commission had instead forecast growth of 0.6% for 2023, 0.7% in 2024 and 1.2% in 2025. Growth not brilliant but exceeding that of Germany, given that for this year the country sees growth of 0.1% and France which grows by 0.7%.
There is also good news for inflation which in 2024 should stand at 1.6% in our country and 1.9% in 2025, well below the 2% target of the ECB. Also in this case the forecasts in the spring document have been revised positively given that in the autumn the Commission had estimated inflation at 2% for 2024 and 2.3% in 2025. “The sharp drop in energy prices recorded in 2023 and early 2024 is expected to ease in the second quarter. The reduction in producer prices has eased pressure on most components of inflation, being more persistent in labour-intensive services. annual inflation fell below 1 percent earlier this year and is expected to recover moderately in the future, reaching an annual rate of 1.6 percent in 2024 and 1.9 percent hundred in 2025”, specifies the European Commission report. In the Eurozone, prices are expected to increase by 2.5% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025. In this way, the optimal inflation level of 2% could be reached as early as 2025
Another forecast that confirms what was put in black and white in the Def is the unemployment levels which are expected to decline. The Commission has in fact forecast an increase in employment of 0.8% in 2024 and +0.4% next year. Unemployment continues to decline by 7.5% in 2024 and 7.3% in 2025. At the same time, “nominal wage growth is expected to outpace inflation, as contracts in private services and public administration will be renewed, incorporating part of the past price increases”, underlines the Brussels report, in line with the latest job updates published by Bankitalia.
