The historic agreement between Israel and Hamas represented a diplomatic success of the first order For Donald Trump.
The American president, who participated in the ceremony for the signing of the agreement on October 13th Sharm el Sheikh together with Giorgia Meloni and other international leaders, has not only received the firm appreciation of the Jewish state but he also received words of gratitude by the mayor of Gaza City, Yahya Al-Sarraj.
Thanks to The Donald they even came fromAnp and by a high exponent of the same Hamashow Yalda Hakim. In short, although the overall situation remains delicate, the tycoon has succeeded in his undertaking bring Israelis and Palestinians to an agreement.
The “Trump Declaration” and the role of Arab countries
Without neglecting the support that the White House received from Türkiye and come on Arab countriesstarting from Qatar and Egypt: not surprisingly, the Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoganthe emir Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani and the Egyptian leader Fattah al-Sisi have signed, in the seaside town, the Trump Declaration for enduring peace and prosperity.
It is then perhaps useful to ask ourselves two distinct but complementary questions: how he did it to achieve this result? And above all: what is the project that the American president has in store for the Middle East of the future?
The hard line against Iran
Let’s start by saying that, as soon as he returned to the White House, Trump has drastically canceled the administration’s Middle Eastern policy Biden.
Differently from its predecessor, the current tenant has in fact implemented a hard line towards Iran: not only has reinstated the “maximum pressure” policy on the ayatollahs but also has bombed their nuclear sites.
Be careful, this does not mean that the tycoon promoted a totally intransigent approach: he in fact attempted, between April and May, to reach with Tehran an agreement on atomic energy.
What he has done is, if anything, to have connected the stick to the carrothitting Iran hard bombs and sanctionswhen he deemed it necessary: an attitude very different fromappeasement That Sleepy Joe had promoted towards the Khomeini regime.
Two objectives achieved: weaken Hamas and reassure Israel
Well, by adopting this policy, Trump achieved two goals.
It has first and foremost weakened Hamaswhich is famously one of the main ones proxy of the Islamic Republic.
Secondly, i American air raids in June on Iranian nuclear sites have reassured Israel and Saudi Arabia: two countries that fear the atomic ambitions of the Khomeinist regime.
At the same time, while ensuring a significant support for JerusalemTrump avoided totally crushing on the positions of Benjamin Netanyahu.
Proof of this is his irritation with the attack conducted by the Jewish State on Doha last September: the American president effectively imposed on the Israeli prime minister to apologize to the leaders of Qataralso guaranteeing the latter a strengthening relations in the defense sector.
All this, without neglecting the bank with theSaudi Arabia: since the current president returned to power, Washington has consolidated relations with Riyadh.
Finally, Trump also has built a solid relationship with Erdoganeasing sanctions on the pro-Turkish regime in Damascus.
The foundations of peace: Gaza and the Abraham Accords
This articulated approach allowed the American president to lay the foundations for the peace agreement was concluded.
Not only has it weakened Hamashitting Iran, but also achieved that Ankara and the Arab countries put the Palestinian organization under pressure to accept the agreement.
At the same time, he held back the Israeli governmentpreventing him from derailing relationships with Gulf monarchies.
Everything found its fulcrum both in the promise of the reconstruction of Gaza (around which economic and geopolitical interests revolve) and in an attempt to revive and expand the Abraham Accords.
The Middle East of the future according to Trump
And this is where we come to Middle East that Trump wants to build.
To understand this, you have to go back to last May, when he visited Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Qatar.
On that occasion, giving a speech to Riadoutlined the features of the Middle Eastern area of the future:
“Before our eyes, a new generation of leaders is transcending the ancient conflicts and tired divisions of the past and forging a future in which the Middle East is defined by trade, not chaos.”
He added: “It is vital that the whole world realizes that this great transformation was not caused by Western interventionists or people who fly around in fancy planes and give you lessons on how to live and how to govern your affairs.”
In that same speech, Trump hoped that Saudi Arabia would soon join the Abraham Accords.
Relaunch relations with the Arab world
It’s here the beating heart of Trump’s project: relaunch relations with the Arab world on the basis of a equal approachfar from the paternalism that it has often characterized Washington in recent decades.
This is all part of the revival and expansion of the Abraham Accordswith the aim of normalize relations between the Arab world and Israel with a view to a lasting stabilization of the region.
In this sense, the role of the special envoy Steve Witkoff and his son-in-law Jared Kushner was crucial: both performed a connecting function between Washington, Jerusalem, Riyadh and Doha.
They had a significant weight in both release of the hostages kidnapped by Hamas both in the drafting the peace plan presented by the White House, which recognizes the Arab countries as a key role in the future of Gaza.
Türkiye and Iran, the two unknowns
The main challenge for Trump will be integrate Turkey and Iran into Abraham’s system.
As mentioned, net of some frictions on Russian oil, i relations between Washington and Ankara they have improved.
Trump extended his hand to the new pro-Turkish Syrian regime and Erdogan, for his part, has pressed on Hamas to accept the American peace plan.
However, the unknowns remain: i relations between Ankara and Jerusalem they are terrible and complicate the possibility of inserting the Türkiye in the framework of Abraham.
Furthermore Erdogan, close to the Muslim Brotherhoodhe is a leader unscrupulous and unpredictablenot always reliable as a guarantee of stability.
However, the “sultan” needs the American support to protect their allies in Damascus.
The Iran issue and the match with Russia and China
The other question mark concerns theIran.
Trump has repeatedly said he hope for an agreement on nuclear power with Tehranwhich prevents the ayatollahs from acquiring the atomic bomb.
In September, it even has open to the possibility that the Khomeinist regime one day adhere to the Abraham Accords.
There strategy is clear: make Iran harmless from an atomic point of view, reassure the Israelis and Saudis and then try to integrate it into the Middle Eastern system under construction.
But it won’t be easy: i Washington-Tehran talks they are stopped and Iran remains ally of Russia and China.
Moscow, weakened by the fall of Assad in Syria, is now trying to mediate between Tehran and Washington to get back into the game, while Beijing sees in the American return to the Middle East a threat to its strategic interests.
It is no coincidence that China has welcomed the agreement between Israel and Hamas so cold and genericwhile Russia has it supported warmly.
A new balance and a historic result
All this shows how the Trump’s policy points to make up ground for Washington in the region, curbing Chinese influence and isolating Iran.
The Sharm el-Sheikh summit in fact he highlighted how Tehran is increasingly isolated on a regional level.
And this could, in the end, push her to softenstarting new nuclear negotiations and accepting, one day, to be integrated into Abraham’s system.
It is no coincidence that, during the summit on 13 October, Trumpsitting next to al-Sisiit showed again open to an understanding with the ayatollahs.
The unknowns remainbut it is equally true that the current American president is succeeding where many of his predecessors have failed: the end of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is in sight Well yes they reshape the balance of the Middle East.
The much-maligned Trump could therefore bring home a historic result. With all due respect to all those idiots who always have it demonized and mocked.
