War for banks. A recurring conflict in the Italian financial system. How can we forget the hot summer of 2005 when the protagonists were the “sly treble of the quarterino”? “Parvenu” came from nowhere and in nothing, in some cases also passing through the homeland. Or like the double public purchase offer (Opa) of March 1999 when Unicredit wanted to conquer Comit and Sanpaolo in Turin had made it broken on Banca di Roma. Velleitisms. Now Sarabanda starts again: with new protagonists and quite another financial power. The set of operations in progress in Piazza Affari is worth about 30 billion that could arrive in fifty if the Unicredit offensive on Commerzbank should be successful.
The three months who earthquake the Italian banking system begin on 6 November last When Giuseppe Castagna, head of Banco Bpm, announces the public purchase offer on Anima. He hadn’t done so perhaps the dances would never start. To end on February 6 with the press conference in which Franco Papa, CEO of Bper, communicates to the market the intention to acquire Banca Popolare di Sondrio with the blessing of Unipol, a great shareholder of both. In 90 days what had never been seen or thought about. The BPM blitz on soul is certainly not surprising. Much less the one launched by Unicredit on the same BPM since the combination had been talked about for some time. And not even the offensive of 300 million IFIS bank on Illimity, a creature by Corrado Passera who, initially, did not welcome considering the price of 3.55 euros, too low. But then extraordinary losses emerged for 53.5 million. To provoke some securitization of NPL paid too expensive and the curse of every Fintech in difficulty such as Banca System or Banca Aidexa. The costs of the collection compared to commercial banks enjoying stable deposits with zero or almost zero or almost deposits.
But the real game, the one that will really change the credit parameter (and of political and financial power in this country) is the other: the Blitz of the Monte dei Paschi di Siena on Mediobanca and the clash to replace Philippe Kminit as CEO of Generali. Everything is held between Milan, Trieste and Rome starting with the protagonists in the field Francesco Gaetano Caltagirone, Francesco Milleri who guides Delphin with a firm hand, the safe that groups the treasure of the old house. Then the Minister of Economy Giancarlo Giorgetti who, with the blessing of Giorgia Meloni, cultivates a dream for the prohibited until yesterday: violate the door of Piazzetta Cuccia to unhinge an ancient indocile and self -referential power. Over the decades many have tried many without success: Christian Democrats and socialists. From Giulio Andreotti to Bettino Craxi, up to Romano Prodi. Now the maneuver could succeed
Thus the war for banks that is making the happiness of Piazza Affari is framed (from November the sectoral index grew by 37 percent) leaves the severe Grisaglia of finance to wear the colors of politics. And not only for the direct involvement of the government. Under siege there is the traditional hegemony of French finance in Italy. The Germans buy non -banks. American and British finance prefer merchant banking to counters. The Spaniards have never found a road as demonstrated by the failed attempts of the Santander on the Sanpaolo of Turin or the BBVA to count something in the old BNL.
French finance, however, knows no defeats. How can we forget the connection between Enrico Cuccia and André Meyer, great patron of the Maison Lazard? A partnership on which the Sicilian banker built the governance in Generali through the Trustalux trustee and in Mediobanca itself. But also in Paris the souls are different. If the secular and Masonic component lies with kennel, there are those who think differently. And so Giovanni Bazoli, at the end of the eighties he calls Crédit agricultural because he must stop the offensive of the good living room of finance which through Gemina wants to conquer the new Ambrosian Banco. Cuccia defines the institute led by Bazoli a coat that does not dress well because the first button is out of place. Forty years after that coat is called Intesa Sanpaolo. In 2006, Crédit agricultural obtained divorce by bringing to the dowry Cariparma and a rich heritage of branches. So in the end it is precisely the agricultural crédit that becomes the ladle of all the pots in which the Risiko is cooked.
To the point that rumors are also difficult to verify with an exchange entirely internal to transalpine finance. BNP-Paribas could sell BNL to really allow Crédit Agricola to give life to the third Italian banking center. In exchange it would get more space in Paris. Difficult to know. However, the centrality of the “banque vet” in the games of our house remains confirmed. According to a reconstruction, it was the French that set fire to the dust. It seems that they have not appreciated the chestnut blitz on soul. Why buy another savings management company when the agricultural owns Amundi who is looking for new alliances since the contract with Unicredit is expiring? Just this impatience would have reached the ears of Andrea Orcel, CEO of Unicredit. Hence the change of priority: the German campaign for the conquest of Commerzbank is announced and difficult. The Italian prey is simpler, even if the offensive on Banco Bpm upsets the plans of the Great Sponsor of the integration between the Milanese bank and Montepaschi for the conquest, together with Delfin and Caltagirone, of Mediobanca.
In the background, the comparison for the renewal of the General Board of Directors where the protagonists are still them: Alberto Nagel, CEO of Mediobanca, Francesco Gaetano Caltagirone and Francesco Milleri, CEO of Delfin. UNICREDIT has now been added with an 8 percent participation. At the center of the comparison, the confirmation of the mandate of the AD Gemet. The government did not like the agreement with Natixis to move 630 billion to save Italians to A Amsterdam in Amsterdam (which in reality would be 150, given that the rest of the collection is made abroad by what is a real multinational). The common French origin of the protagonists of the intended has accentuated the distrust.
Now the games have entered the heart. How will they end? Castagna, now in the packet of arrival on Soul, is trying to defend the autonomy of Banco Bpm with a road show on customers and small companies. It won’t be easy. On his recent trip to Rome, Orcel explained to the environments close to Palazzo Chigi that if the Unicredit offensive should fail BPM would become in all respects French. Agricultural already controls 15 percent: 9.9 directly and the rest (it is said) parked in Deutsche Bank, and can go up again until 20. From that height change the governance to the next renewal of advice would be simple and therefore BPM would be delivered to the French giant without wounding. This simple consideration, however, did not soften the distrust of the government against the AD of Unicredit who, apparently, had played the last card. Deploy his share of generals against Mediobanca. The answer was “not needed”. No sign of peace. The go -ahead on BPM will have to overcome the golden power scarce. Several stakes will be imposed. Some risk arousing antitrust objections. For example, it is possible that the Golden Power requests the maintenance of the counters in certain areas while the antitrust could find an abuse of dominant position in the area. Not to mention the fact that there are no deadlines. So the go -ahead could also come in the time because at Palazzo Chigi they are very interested in understanding what happens in the Russian branch of Unicredit.
MPS’s path on Mediobanca much simpler. The Sienese bank can already count on 25 percent that will be delivered to her by Delfin and Caltagirone. By collecting another 15 percent with the OPS it would reach 40 percent and could have governance in hand. The last word will be up to the ECB which, at the time of turning on the green disc, could promote reflections on the project. However, nothing that can stop the news. Casoma suggestions
Finally general. The changing of the guard at the summit still seems to be postponed. Caltagirone and Delfin, apparently, will limit themselves in the coming weeks to present a short list for the Council without indicating the name of the CEO. It means that Kminit goes to confirmation. Then it will be the government with the Golden Power to give the last word on the agreement with Natixis.
