The recent optimism surrounding negotiations over the fate of the hostages between Israel and Hamas has given way to growing frustration, after Israeli officials revealed significant obstacles in their dealings with the terrorist group, particularly with Mohammed Sinwar brother of former leader Yahya Sinwar killed by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) on 16 October 2024 in Tal as Sultan (Gaza). Mohammed Sinwar also spent several years in Israeli prisons in the 1990s and became the leader of Hamas’ Khan Younis Brigade in 2005. Israel has not yet received from Hamas the list of living and dead hostages who are expected to be released in the first phase of a possible ceasefire agreement. According to the Israel Hayom newspaper, Hamas is backtracking from the softer positions of recent weeks: « Hamas is effectively backtracking from the softening that led to the resumption of talks, and is once again demanding Israel’s commitment to end the war in the last phase of the agreement as a condition for the implementation of the first,” an anonymous senior official told the newspaper. In this sense, the Prime Minister’s office last December 24 Benjamin Netanyahu announced the return of the negotiating team from Qatar “for internal deliberations in Israel regarding the continuation of the negotiations”. Sources close to the negotiations describe a situation of deliberate obstructionism. It is alleged that Mohammed Sinwar consistently misled mediators, blocking requests for hostage lists for weeks and backing out of previously reached agreements. Nothing new in reality because Hamas has been playing on multiple tables for more than a year, withdrawing at the last moment.
Two critical questions remain unresolved: Hamas’ persistent refusal to provide a list of hostages needed for an initial release and disagreements over the number of Palestinian prisoners to be exchanged, as well as the conditions of their deportation. Israeli officials reiterate that the submission of a list of hostages is an essential requirement. The absence of this list obviously prevents any discussion on other controversial topics. The end of the war represents a further point of friction. Although initially Hamas seemed willing to set aside this request to facilitate the start of negotiations, now insists that any agreement includes a clear path towards the definitive resolution of the conflict. Security officials were reported to have privately informed ministers this week that launching the first phase of a deal could lead to its completion. However, while cabinet members are increasingly willing to accept the high costs of such a compromise, they remain firmly opposed to making an end to the war an integral part of the agreement. As he writes Israel Hayom there are also signs of progress: for example, an agreement was reached for the release of hostages who meet basic humanitarian requirements and for the expansion of assistance measures in Gaza. Furthermore, a preliminary consensus appears to be emerging regarding the positioning of Israeli forces for a possible ceasefire.
New missiles from Yemen against Israel
Meanwhile the Houthis they continue to fire missiles at Israel and on December 25 they launched another ballistic missile at Israel, the fourth such nighttime attack in less than a week and the fifth targeting central Israel since December 16. The attacks were just the latest in a campaign in which the Houthis have fired more than 200 missiles and 170 drones at Israel over the past year. In addition to attacks on Israel, the Iran-backed group fired missiles and drones at around 100 merchant ships in the Red Sea, disrupting a major global trade route. These attacks have forced many aircraft carriers to avoid this strategic route, causing severe disruption to global shipping. Both the United States and Israel have struck Yemeni terrorists, however, they continue to challenge Israel, which is now preparing a major operation against them. Last Tuesday the Minister of Defense Israel Katz said: “Israel will begin targeting Houthi leaders.” This was echoed by an Israeli official who told the Times of Israel: «The Houthis are making a big mistake when they continue to attack Israel. Today we have a ceasefire in Lebanon and less intense fighting in Gaza and we have the opportunity to shift our attention and our resources to the Yemeni front, the Houthi front. This is what we are doing these days and we are also formulating a response together with our allies led by the United States and, when the time comes, we will make sure that the Houthi forces pay.” But it will take an extraordinary effort because history teaches that against powerful enemies, the Houthis have proven to be resilient. Exactly like in Afghanistan, the mountainous territory of Yemen it is a valuable asset for guerrilla groups facing air attacks and over the past few years have learned to adapt to air campaigns. To destroy the Houthis’ war capacity, their publications always end with “God is the greatest, death to America, death to Israel, a curse on the Jews, victory for Islam”, a joint effort between Israel and the United States will be needed. and their regional allies, one above all Saudi Arabia. But for this we will probably have to wait until Donald Trump takes office in the White House on January 20th.
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