Will we be without power? Italy is changing the way it consumes electricity, but not fast enough to keep up with the goals it has set. Here are the crucial issues to resolve.
Will we be without power? Italy is changing the way it consumes electricity, but not fast enough to keep up with the goals it has set. In 2025 the electrical needs it was just over 311 terawatt hours (Twh, equal to one billion kilowatt hours): the 43.8% covered by thermal sourcesThe 41.1% from renewable and the rest (besides the 15%) from net imports from abroad. In fact, Italy remains the first country in Europe for electricity imports and among the first in the world. And this is already a problem.
But the biggest problem is that the demand for energy is destined to grow dramatically both to free us from dependence on… hydrocarbons both to lower emissions CO2both for the arrival of new and hungry consumers like i data centers. Meanwhile, disturbing signs are arriving. Like the risk evoked by the CEO of Eni, Claudio Descalzithat there may be a lack of gas needed to operate the power plants. Or the stop of some nuclear plants in France so as not to further heat river water during heat waves. Furthermore, the reports of Ternathe company that governs electricity transmission in the country, report amid general indifference that the minimum margin of adequacy of our system is just 0.3 gigawatts which would have to cope with peaks in demand or sudden drops in electricity imports or production. In 2018 this margin was well 7 GW. So we are at the limit, we risk blackouts.
The issue of adequacy margins and risks for the electricity grid
The underlying question is inevitable: can we really do it, at the current pace, to satisfy an increasingly electric Italy? In the official plans and scenarios, the Italian transition has very clear figures: in 2030 and 2035 the demand for electrons should rise respectively by 16 and of 26% compared to current levels, driven by economic growth and electrification of consumption. In fact, the most updated scenarios predict that the requirement will increase to approximately 361.9 TWh in 2030 and almost 397 TWh in 2035, with trajectories which, in cases of greater electrification, push demand up to 404-439 TWh to 2040.
To achieve these objectives, however, we need growth in renewables that is much higher than the current one, pending the return to nuclear power which will take at least 10 years. The scenario of Pniec (Integrated national plan for energy and climate) to 2035 is about 100 gigawatts (GW) of solar systems and 37 GW of wind power, with a further increase in 2040. Today we are far from those rates. The photovoltaic has accelerated compared to the past, but the growth of 6.5 GW the year is not yet in line with the 7-8 GW necessary years. THE’wind power is even further behind: in response to a requirement of 2.9 GW per year, in 2025 fewer than were installed 0.7 GW. Meanwhile, countries like Germany And Spain they now have a share of renewables in the electricity demand that travels around the 60% et al 56% respectively, while Italy remains stationary just above 40%. We are the large European economy most dependent on gas, which makes us vulnerable to international crises and supplier decisions, come on United States al Middle East.
European directives and the obstacles of Italian bureaucracy
On the European front, the European Commission has raised the bar even further. The new electrification objectives aim to reduce dependence on gas by two thirds and halve that on oil by 2040, through the massive electrification of transport and industrial processes. Countries are being asked to run faster just as many of them – including Italy – still have their strings tied.
And while waiting for nuclear power plants, the question becomes inevitable: what obstacles must Italy overcome today to reach the goals it has set itself? The first node is the authorization one. Photovoltaic and wind power plants still face long and uncertain paths, with overlapping skills between State, Regions, Superintendencies and local authorities. Think tank like Aeneas and associations such as Solar Italy they ask for strong liberalizations for solar systems on unprotected roofs, simplifications for warehouses, greater openness to ground-based systems for self-consumption.
Infrastructure and storage to support energy development
The second node is the network. Terna has started and completed important investments to create new high and very high voltage infrastructures, renew existing networks and increase interconnections with foreign countries: in addition 300km of new lines built in 2025 alone, the completion of the route Paternò–Pantano–Priolo in Sicilythe start of connection work Chiaramonte Gulfi–Ciminna and the authorization process for the Sardinian Link and the Central Link Between Umbria And Tuscany. These are infrastructures designed to improve service continuity, relieve congestion in areas with a high concentration of renewables and strengthen interconnections with the rest of Europe. Without this “new” network, the growth of renewable GW risks turning into local overgeneration, production cuts and depressed zonal prices, with economically fragile plants precisely where solar and wind resources are most abundant.
The third node is that of accumulations. In 2025, the electricity storage capacity in Italy, also considering existing pumping, will be higher 72 GWh. In September 2025 Terna held an auction with a unique instrument in Europe (the Macse) and further awards were made 10 GWh which will enter into operation by 2028. The target of Pniec to 2030 it is 122 GWh: considering i 10 GWh already awarded ei 16 GWh which will be awarded in November and which, last but not least, also continue to install small-scale systems, the country is on the right path.
Fiscal imbalances and the real impact on citizens’ bills
Finally, the fourth node is regulatory and fiscal. In the domestic sector, electricity bears a burden of taxes and charges approximately four times higher than gas; for SMEs and commercial activities the gap can exceed 20 times; for public charging of electric cars, electricity is taxed approximately two and a half times more than petrol. The vector that should be the backbone of the transition is the one that taxation penalizes the most.
The solutions suggested by the experts are therefore quite convergent. But will citizens ultimately pay lower bills? The honest answer is that it isn’t true at all. Italy, compared to the main countries ofEuropean Unionis still heavily dependent on gas. And the transition we face is full of costs: the costs of connecting new renewables. The costs of keeping gas power plants alive, necessary to cover gaps in the production of renewables and to guarantee peak power at critical moments. The costs of accumulations that require heavy investments. In short, those who hope that the energy transition will automatically translate into cheaper bills risk being disappointed.
