Politics

Here are the possible scenarios

A new round of talks between Ukrainian and American delegations is taking place in Switzerland. Also present is Russian negotiator Dmitriev, who will confer with Witkoff and Kushner. Trump wants peace by the end of the summer, but the road remains uphill.

The day of new round of negotiations between the United States, Ukraine and Russia began with a massive missile barrage Russian about Ukrainian cities. The battered Ukrainian capital, Kiev, and many other cities were hit, including Kharkhiv, Kryvyi Rih, Poltava and Vinnytsia.

The targets of the attacks were for the umpteenth time energy infrastructure of the country, already under very strong pressure after more than three months of Russian air raids.

At least 25 injured, with 16 people injured in Kharkiv. While in the south-eastern city of Zaporizhia seven people were injured in the attacks.

Interviews in Geneva

Meanwhile, in the next few hours, the new round of negotiations between the three delegations took place at the Intercontinental Hotel in Geneva.

Ukraine’s chief negotiator Rustem Umerov met with US envoys Steve Witkoff And Jared Kushnerin what was defined as a preparatory bilateral, as part of the “preparations for a trilateral meeting with Russia, which we believe will take place in early March”, in the words of Zelensky.

“Together with the government’s economic team, we will work thoroughly on the prosperity package: mechanisms for economic support and recovery of Ukraine, tools for attracting investments and frameworks for long-term cooperation,” as reported by the chief negotiator Umerov.

“Moreover,” Umerov concluded, “we will discuss preparations for the next round of trilateral negotiations with the Russian side: it is necessary to synchronize the positions before this phase”

He was also expected in Geneva Kirill DmitrievSpecial Representative of the Russian President for Investment, who was supposed to meet separately with Witkoff and Kushner.

However, the unresolved issues that emerged in previous sessions remain in the background: Russian demands on the occupied territorieswhich see Ukraine refusing to withdraw from the small portion of Donbass still under its control, the issue of the Zaporizhia nuclear power plantthe largest in Europe, occupied by Moscow and disconnected from Kiev’s energy system, and the security guarantees for Ukraine.

The phone call between Trump and Zelensky

On the night between Wednesday and Thursday, Donald Trump And Volodymyr Zelensky they spoke by telephone, in what is the first contact between the two since the Davos summit.

The call came within a few hours of the American abstention on the UN resolution for the ceasefire in Ukraineand on the eve of the meeting between the Ukrainian chief negotiator Umerov and the US envoy Witkoff.

According to what was reported by the Ukrainian presidency, the two leaders discussed the issues that their respective negotiators will address in Geneva, but above all they laid the foundations for bringing the talks from the technical level to that of heads of state.

Zelensky had already stated that he expected the next trilateral meeting “offers the opportunity to take conversations to the leader level” and that “President Trump supports this sequence of steps”. A meeting which according to the Ukrainian leader is necessary to “resolve all the complex and delicate issues and finally put an end to the war”.

Moscow slows down on Putin-Zelensky meeting

Moscow’s response, however, came promptly and coldly. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that a meeting between Russia, the United States and Ukraine at the presidential level is logical only in a final stageto “finalize the agreement”.

In other words, the three presidents will be able to sit at the same table only to sign an agreement already substantially negotiated by their respective teams. Not before.

A source close to the Kremlin specified that “the only way the Russian president can meet with a representative of the Ukrainian leadership is to sign a peace agreement“.

As for the prospect of a bilateral Putin-Zelensky face-to-face, Peskov expressed skepticism clear, inviting us to remember Zelensky’s public declarations on what Ukraine will never accept (such as the transfer of Donbass, desired instead by the Kremlin) and asking rhetorically how we can think of a summit in such conditions.

End the war before the midterms

It seems clear that Donald Trump wants to end the war in Ukraine before mid-term electionsscheduled for November 2026.

The American president has a foreign policy agenda that he intends to pursue within the midterm elections, Moscow and Kiev, with their obstinacy in maintaining intransigent positions, represent an obstacle to The Donald’s plans.

A peace agreement would rightly be presented to the American electorate as a historic victorycapable of raising the President’s approval rating.

National polls ahead of the election currently have Republicans trailing Democrats by five points for control of the House of Representatives.

Trump knows that in November he risks losing the House and that the primary effect of this loss would be to offer the Dems great opportunities to put a spoke in his wheels.