In the second quarter, the GDP of 0.1%, but wages and worked hours grow. Moderate inflation and raised investments keep the economy afloat
Who would have said it? The Cassandre of the left, those that foreshadowed economic catastrophes at each turn of banknote, must take a break and reflect: Italy does not sink, despite the screams screamed and hearts in apnea. Yes, it’s true, the GDP braked. In the second quarter of 2025, in fact, the Italian economy records a contraction of 0.1% compared to the previous three months, after +0.3% of the first quarter. On an annual basis, the variation stops at a very shy +0.4% (it was +0.7% in the previous quarter), while the growth acquired at the moment is worth +0.5%. But the tragedy, as often happens, is more in newspapers than in real numbers.
So what really scares families? The shopping cart, of course. Istat photographs a paradoxical scene: the Italians open the wallet, spend more … and return home with the same envelopes of the shopping. In August, the general inflation slows down to +1.6% per year (from +1.7% in July), thanks above all to the reduction of energy, whose prices drop from +17.1% to +12.9%, while the unregulated ones even go to negative territory (-5.9%). A breath of oxygen which, however, is not enough to make families smile, given that the trolley still runs to +3.5% per year (from +3.2%), with fresh food at +5.6% and those processed at +3%. Recreational and cultural services rise from +2.7% to +2.9%, transport from +3.3% to +3.5%. In short, having fun costs almost as much as breathing … but communicating is still convenient: telecommunications services slow down from +0.5% to +0.2%.
Yet, under the surface, there are positive signals that no Cassandra can ever deny. The worked hours grow by 0.2% compared to the previous quarterthanks to the contribution of industry and services. Income from per capita employee income increase by 0.9%in total economy: agriculture loses 0.1%, but the industry grows by 0.6%, 2%constructions and services of 0.9%. Translated: more work, more salaries, more movement in the pockets of Italians. Not exactly the picture from the end of the world foreseen by those who love economic catastrophism.
Yes, the consumption of families remain dishes, the industry retires (-0.3%), agriculture marks -0.6%, and exports collapsed by 1.7%while imports increase slightly (+0.4%). But investments (+1%) and stocks (+0.4 pil points) hold the impact, preventing the country from really sliding. Italy moves in small steps, between ups and downs, with a GDP that does not fly but does not collapseand with families who, while spending more, earn a little more and work more.
In short, photography is clear: the prophetic left had foreseen an adrift Italy, but reality denies the apocalyptic scenario. The country does not gallop, it does not make a bang, but continues to walk, step by step, between moderate inflation, increasing wages and growing hours growing. Not an unbridled race towards prosperity, of course, but not even a shipwreck: only real Italy, the one that works, spends and lives, with the ironic and a half resigned half a smile of those who know that the numbers, in the end, speak clearer than the Cassandre.
