Between terrorism and naval threats, Europe tightens controls while tension grows between Iran and the United States
Europe has two soft bellies. The first is the Balkans, a route through which members of Iranian terrorist cells can pass, including Turkey; the other is the Mediterranean, a sea which, precisely because it belongs to “everyone”, often ends up belonging to “no one”. The war between the USA, Israel and Iran inevitably leads the neighboring nations to have to increase maritime traffic control measures. Not only because of the possible presence of Russian ships and submarines, but because Iran is able to arrive in the middle of the mare nostrum, both with agents embarked on small hulls, difficult to spot and completely anonymous, and by organizing complex but possible missions, entrusting them to the numerous mini submarines at its disposal. Thus, the Iranian missile attacks bring the Mediterranean back to the center of the European Union’s attention in terms of threats.
The risk of terrorism and how to fight it
Tehran’s attempt to strike the military bases in Cyprus is certainly worth considering, which is why it is necessary to review the aims of the Euractiv mission, activated for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, possibly considering what the Commission proposed last year: four large-scale projects to prepare the continent to defend itself by 2030. At the time, the threat from Russia was at the top of the concerns, with Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius convinced that Moscow could attack the EU by 2031. It is therefore necessary to think about a new mission, as was “Sea Guardian” in 2020, with the involvement of nations which coexist with the Mediterranean, like Greece, or border, like Croatia.
How Europe intends to handle the situation
Today the situation has changed, and the Commission has put forward the idea of establishing a surveillance service for the Mediterranean, after several countries in the southern continent had asked Brussels for greater attention to their requests. Meanwhile, after talks between Italy, France, Germany and Cyprus, Athens has deployed some military aircraft in Nicosia and sent two naval units. And President Macron intends to do the same. However, we know that Brussels’ times are always too long, and so far i four Union defense projects they have remained at the level of words, and have not yet become concrete initiatives. In particular, none of the initiatives have yet been officially approved.
The danger of terrorism in the Old Continent
Last week, the Commission spokesperson issued this statement: «What is happening confirms the need to recall the flagships that we are coordinating with the Member States, to advance the necessary and planned projects». However, there is a military resources problem: after the various shipments of anti-aircraft systems produced in the European Union to Ukraine, despite the doubling of the production capacity of the supply chain (as implemented by the multinational Mbda), our arsenals are not ready to simultaneously face possible missile attacks by Iran. And after the sending of two ballistic effectors towards the island of Diego Garcia (Indian Ocean), at a distance from the launch close to 4,000 km, the psychosis of being able to return within the range of Tehran’s missiles is also strong in Europe and, even more so, in the southern Mediterranean.
The defense of the Mediterranean
On paper everyone would like space “shields”, and so does Italy, with the Michelangelo projectbegan working in this direction. But it will be ready in years and the crisis between the USA and Iran, like the one between Russia and Ukraine, is today. The biblical times of the Union are one of its problems: six months ago it was Poland and Finland who thought of an eastern defense belt in an anti-Russian key (the operation was called Eastern Flank Watch), Brussels approved the initiative but it has yet to be implemented. And this indecision makes Europe less credible in the eyes of potential enemies, ready to exploit such indecision to their advantage. Meanwhile, the brief five-day truce that Trump granted to Tehran becomes precious time to organize the patrolling areas of the Mediterranean and implement control missions; Iranian infiltration may already be in a position ready to strike.
