In 2025, INPS pensions paid abroad will rise to 675 thousand (+1.3%). Boom in Spain and Tunisia, decline in the USA and Australia. The Senate is studying incentives for returning to small municipalities
Italy pays more and more pensions outside its borders. In 2025, the international regime allowances paid abroad by INPS reached their quota 675 thousandscoring a +1.3% compared to 2024. A figure which, in the words of the Institute, represents a “trend reversal” compared to recent years and which brings a structural phenomenon back to the fore: an increasingly significant part of Italian social security spending moves across borders.
The topic becomes strategic again while a bill is being discussed in the Senate which aims to encourage the tax return of pensioners from non-EU countries to small municipalities in internal areas, through targeted incentives. It’s not just a question of checks: it’s a game that intertwines public finance, demography and territorial policies.
The 675 thousand pensions paid outside Italy
The picture was outlined by Gianfranco Santoro, director of Studies and Research of the INPS, who spoke at the hearing on the provision. International pensions – accrued with contributions between Italy and abroad – reached 675 thousand in 2025. The 1.3% increase compared to 2024 marks a change of pace after a phase of substantial stability.
The flow of social security payments abroad is therefore confirmed as stable and growing. A dynamic that involves both Italians who have worked outside the country and pensioners who decide to transfer residence for tax reasons or due to a different cost of living.
The segment over 25 thousand euros
Within the total, a key segment emerges: pensions exceeding 25,000 euros per year, which represent approximately 27% of all international pensions.
According to INPS, this is the group potentially most affected by return incentives. It is no coincidence that “three out of four” of the checks above that threshold are paid in non-EU countries. A figure that directly intersects with the approach of the bill, aimed precisely at those who transfer tax residence from states not belonging to the European Union.
Where the INPS check is worth more: the new map between the Mediterranean and overseas
The comparison between 2018 and 2025 shows a profound change in the geography of Italian pensions abroad. These are not simple statistical fluctuations, but a redistribution driven by fiscal factors, cost of living, quality of services and regulatory stability.
Over the past seven years there has been a 40% decline in retirees in the United States and a reduction of more than 50% in Australia and Canada. At the same time, a marked growth is observed towards the Mediterranean basin and southern Europe: +75% in Spain, +144% in Portugal and +255% in Tunisia.
Spain is today the favorite destination. Mild climate, high quality of life, accessible health services and costs on average lower than many Italian cities make the country particularly attractive. Added to this is a tax system perceived as more predictable and a cultural proximity that facilitates integration. It is not just an economic choice: it is a transfer that allows you to maintain a lifestyle similar to the Italian one, with greater purchasing power.
Portugal experienced a real boom in the years when the tax regime for foreign residents guaranteed significant advantages. The +144% between 2018 and 2025 is the photograph of that season. However, the progressive revision of incentives has attenuated the country’s appeal, while maintaining it among the reference destinations for stability and quality of services.
Tunisia recorded the most marked increase: +255%. Here the cost of living differential and favorable taxation are the main driving force. The geographical proximity to Italy and the presence of already rooted Italian communities make the choice less complex than it may appear. It is a destination that focuses on economic convenience, but which in recent years has consolidated its role among the most valued options.
The new map indicates a clear trend: the INPS check is “worth more” where the cost of living is lower and the tax burden is lighter, especially in contexts that are climatically and culturally close to Italy.
Why the United States and Australia are declining
The downsizing of historic destinations such as the United States, Australia and Canada is not accidental. In the United States, the 40% decline is influenced by the increase in the cost of living, especially in large urban areas, and by a healthcare system that can involve significant expenses. Taxation also affects overall convenience.
In Australia and Canada, where the reduction exceeds 50%, geographical distance and increased costs have an impact. For an Italian pensioner, the possibility of maintaining a frequent link with the country of origin is a decisive factor. The distance becomes a dissuasive element compared to more accessible Mediterranean destinations.
The result is a progressive “Mediterraneanisation” of the Italian pension abroad: the choice is oriented towards neighboring countries, with lower costs and competitive tax regimes.
The Senate plan to encourage return
The bill under consideration aims to encourage the return of pensioners from non-EU countries to small municipalities in internal Italian areas, through specific tax incentives.
According to what was illustrated by INPS at the hearing, the rule would not produce negative effects on public finances, since the potential benefits would be able to offset any modest trend effects. The objective is twofold: to recover the fiscal base and to combat the depopulation of internal areas.
Not just pensioners: the youth issue
During the hearing, another front was also brought up: that of young Italian expatriates. A possible structural return of the new generations could have an even more incisive impact on the economic and social revitalization of the territories.
The 675 thousand checks paid outside Italy tell a consolidated reality. But the question that now arises is political: compete with Spain and Tunisia on the fiscal field or create a model of internal attractiveness capable of bringing pensioners home? In the coming months the answer will pass through Parliament.
