With the arrival, in January 2027, of the new European regulation Ets2, which aims to cut greenhouse gas emissions in industry, the heaviest bill will be paid by companies and then by families in cascade. Starting from the increase in the price of fuel and heating for homes.
The ecological transition, the operation to save the planetas green politics promises, is not free: it has a high cost. We are only at the beginning of the journey but the first effects can already be seen on the industrial system and on family budgets without the same being said, in a specular way, for the significant reduction in CO2 at a global level.
Companies in crisis and Chinese domination
Companies that are unable to keep up with electrification close down, or send thousands of workers home, and entire sectors are handed over to the Chinese monopoly champion in exporting clean technology (from photovoltaics to car batteries), even if it does not give up coal, drills, mines and plastic to produce it. In addition to this, there is an aspect of the ecological transition less known to the general public, but which will soon feel the burden on their pockets.
What is EU ETS2
We are talking about the EU ETS2, i.e. the new European carbon dioxide quota trading system, one of the main European Union measures for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the industrial sectors with the greatest impact on climate change. The assumption of the measure is that the business system is currently the most responsible for global warming.
Entry into force and operation
We will not delve into this widely debated topic which sees conflicting theories, but into the costs for everyone of the countermeasures launched by Brussels and which will become operational, barring changes by the Commission, from 1 January 2027, therefore in about a year. ETS2 is a European emissions trading system that applies to buildings, road transport and small industry, extending the existing carbon market (EU ETS1). In fact, since January 1st this year, companies that emit fossil fuels have started monitoring and reporting their emissions. From 2027, however, we will move on to the market phase with the auctioning of CO2 quotas, following a system based on the “cap and trade” principle, i.e. companies purchase quotas to cover their emissions, with the aim of reducing them by 42 percent by 2030 compared to 2005 levels.
Who will be involved
Residential and commercial buildings, road transport and small and medium-sized businesses are forced to submit to this trap. With the “cap and trade” system, a maximum limit of emissions allowed (cap) is set and companies that exceed this limit must purchase emission quotas on the market (trade), while the more virtuous ones can sell them.
The estimated economic impact
What the impact will be on families and industry is anticipated by researcher Francesco Martoccia, energy strategist at the American investment bank Citi. One figure above all already makes the blood freeze in the veins: between 2027 and 2030 the estimated annual cost for the Italian economy will be between 15 and 30 billion euros. And this means that consumers will be affected by rising fuel prices due to the passing on of the costs of polluting emissions from hydrocarbon suppliers to end users.
A particular case: Italy
This mechanism has a greater impact in Italy since our country, observes Martoccia, does not have a national CO2 taxation system, which makes Ets2 a novelty. Otherwise, 16 of the 27 Member States of the Union already have national carbon dioxide quota trading systems or similar national CO2 taxation mechanisms which will be absorbed by the new European system when it comes into force.
How much will it cost families
According to Citi estimates, the price of methane will increase by 40 percent compared to current prices (around 0.19 euros per cubic meter), while propane will rise by 20 percent (0.15 euros per liter). This means for a typical family, which consumes 1,400 cubic meters of methane per year, having to face an additional cost for heating of around 300 euros per year, before any reductions in raw material prices. Petrol, however, will suffer an increase in prices of 13 percent (0.22 euros per litre) and diesel fuel by 17 percent (0.27 euros per litre). Considering the annual Italian consumption (11.6 billion liters of petrol and 28.3 billion liters of diesel), the increased overall expenditure will exceed 10 billion euros.
Fiscal effects and inflation
Neutralizing these increases with a cut in excise duties would result in a loss for the Treasury of around 12 billion euros, compared to a tax revenue from fuels which in 2024 exceeded 38 billion euros.
A big blow, not to mention the inflationary risks, since energy costs would have an impact on the prices of agricultural, industrial, service and logistics goods. To mitigate the effects, Brussels has set up a fund which, however, is a sort of warm blanket. Between 2026 and 2032 it will allocate 65 billion, of which approximately 7 billion will go to Italy, with national co-financing of 2.3 billion.
This fund will cover only 5 percent of total Italian spending estimated at 150 billion euros in the same period. The rest will be borne by families and businesses.
The case of transport and paradoxes
A study commissioned by Conftrasporti to the Freight Insights Observatory, established by the National Center for Sustainable Mobility (Most) and the Logistics and Infrastructure Economics Study Center Foundation (Cseli), estimates for the road transport sector an increase in the price of diesel above the prospects indicated by Citi: around 30 cents per liter more, with an increase of around 20 percent, i.e. an annual revenue at a national level of between 2 and 3 billion.
But there’s more. In the case of maritime transport, where the ETS system has already been in force since 2025, this creates a lower competitiveness of European ports, since the rules on CO2 do not apply to ports on the African side of the Mediterranean. This means that a 10,000 container ship saves 500,000 euros if it does not touch European coasts. Furthermore, the ETS, paradoxically, favors road transport, which is more polluting, compared to sea transport.
The same study estimates, in the case of multimodal transport (maritime and road) of trucks on ships, that on the Ravenna-Catania sea route there is an extra cost of 43 euros per load unit compared to road transport alone. The president of Conftrasporto, Pasquale Russo, highlights precisely this paradoxical situation. «The average price will entail an additional charge for sea transport of approximately 61 euros per load unit, equal to the difference between 143 euros for maritime transport and 82 euros for road transport. It means that we are heading towards an increase in freight rates of between 20 and 25 percent, which is not sustainable. Thus it will be preferable to transport goods by road and not by sea.”
Russo points out that with the entry into force of the ETS in the maritime sector, «after many years, we have recorded a decline in maritime shipment volumes because the multimodal solution is used less». A coincidence? Thus the measure that should reduce CO2 not only reduces the savings of families and businesses, but also harms the environment by making road transport more convenient.
