In Southern Italy, the number of pensions paid has exceeded that of salaries. This data, which emerged from an analysis by the CGIA Research Office in Mestre based on data from INPS and ISTAT, highlights a phenomenon that is set to extend to other areas of the country in the coming years. Forecasts indicate that, by 2028, approximately 2.9 million Italians will reach retirement age, of which 2.1 million are currently employed in the regions of Central and Northern Italy.
CGIA warns of the implications of this trend. “Given the serious demographic crisis underway, it will be difficult to replace all the workers who will exit the labor market,” the report states. The direct consequence of this phenomenon will be an increase in the number of pensions paid out compared to salaries, with potential repercussions on the economic sustainability of the Italian social security and healthcare system.
According to the latest available data for 2022, in Italy there were approximately 23.1 million employed and self-employed workers, while pensions paid were approximately 22.8 million, with a positive balance of 327 thousand units. However, the demographic and employment dynamics of recent years suggest a trend that could reverse this balance. While the number of employed people has grown slightly, it is reasonable to assume that the number of pensions has also recorded an increase, probably more significant.
The CGIA analysis also highlights a marked imbalance between pensions and salaries in several provinces in the South. Lecce, Naples, Messina, Reggio Calabria and Palermo present the largest negative differences between the number of pensions paid and that of salaries, with Lecce recording a negative balance of 97 thousand units. This imbalance is not only due to the number of old-age or early pensions, but also to the spread of social or disability benefits, which are particularly prevalent in these areas.
The CGIA analysis highlights four main factors that have contributed to this situation: the decline in the birth rate, the progressive aging of the population, an employment rate significantly lower than the European average and the widespread presence of irregular work. These elements, closely interconnected, have led to a reduction in the number of active contributors, consequently increasing the number of recipients of social security and welfare benefits.
The problem is not limited to the South: CGIA reports that in 11 provinces in Northern Italy the number of pensions paid out already exceeds that of salaries. Among these provinces, Genoa, Ferrara, Alessandria, Biella and Savona show the greatest negative imbalances. The situation is expected to worsen in the coming years, extending the gap between pensions and salaries to the most economically advanced regions of the country.
Faced with these data, CGIA calls for urgent intervention to rebalance the situation. “With such a high number of pensioners and few active workers, public spending is destined to increase, while tax revenues risk decreasing,” says CGIA secretary Renato Mason. To prevent this trend from compromising the stability of public finances, it is necessary to increase the number of employed people, bringing out undeclared workers and increasing employment rates among young people and women, which in Italy are among the lowest in Europe.
In conclusion, CGIA highlights the urgency of addressing the country’s demographic and employment problem with targeted policies that promote regular employment and encourage participation in the labor market by younger age groups and women. Only through concerted action will it be possible to guarantee the sustainability of the social security system and preserve the economic balance of the country.
