The campaign of Kamala Harris it ended in a stalemate. This was certified yesterday TheHillaccording to which, three weeks before the vote, the vice president is dangerously losing ground in key states. Two Dem strategists, interviewed by the newspaper on condition of anonymity, appeared particularly pessimistic. “We should be on an upward trajectory. This is the sign of a campaign that is on track to win. The fact that we are not is problematic to say the least,” said the first. “This is not where we want to be with less than three weeks to go. It’s terrifying,” added the second. Indeed, the poll numbers leave little to the imagination. According to the average of Real Clear Politicsthe Harris it currently has a 1.6% lead nationally: at the beginning of October it was at 2.2%. Without neglecting that Joe Biden, at this time in 2020, he was ahead by as many as nine points. Coming instead to the key states, Pennsylvania and Michigan, Donald Trump has moved slightly into the lead, while the vice president’s lead in Wisconsin is less than 1%.
Let’s make it clear right away: the game remains open, also because, as we have seen, the overall situation appears fundamentally in the balance. What stands out, however, are the disappointing numbers Harris three weeks before the vote, after, especially in August, a certain media fanfare had presented her almost as the certainly winning candidate. What happened?
Let’s start by saying that, despite what some of her supporters claimed, the vice president never had victory in her pocket. On the other hand, his campaign has always discounted a structural weakness, having been there Harris suddenly found herself catapulted to presidential candidate without going through the primaries and, above all, just three months before the November elections. It is therefore clear that, net of powerful financiers and a media ecosystem that was not too hostile towards her at the time, the vice president started at a structural disadvantage: the fundamentals of the race, in other words, remained in favor of Trump. That said, this is not enough to explain the difficulties faced by the campaign Harris has come to a head in recent weeks. In fact, significant errors were also made, most of them in August: exactly in the period of maximum media celebration of the Dem candidate.
First of all, the Harris he made a mistake in choosing his deputy. If he had opted for Mark Kelly or for Josh Shapirowould have balanced the ticket, making it more attractive for centrist voters and, above all, this would have allowed her to defuse the attacks of Trumpwho never misses an opportunity to brand his opponent as a liberal extremist. By choosing Tim Walzthe Harris instead he moved the ticket too far to the left, fueling criticism from Republicans. The vice president’s objective, focusing on the governor of Minnesota, was to court the pro-Palestinian electorate: an objective which however she failed to achieve, given that the main Arab-American political committee announced that, this year, it will not give endorsement of any presidential candidate. On the other hand, Waltzfor his gaffes, has repeatedly embarrassed the Harris. And also in the television comparison with JD Vance turned out to be less than brilliant.
A second mistake for the Harris was to avoid journalistic interviews for the entire first month of the campaign. By doing so, he only ended up fueling doubts about his abilities and leadership. Not only that. She also began to antagonize some of the same press who initially treated her with kid gloves. An error, that of Harriswhich continued even when he finally agreed to be interviewed: he often chose to go to friendly or otherwise protected contexts. At CNN he was accompanied by Waltzwhile CBS has edited some of its responses to make them more effective. And in any case, in both interviews, the person concerned didn’t do very well: she appeared too preset, as well as excessively generic in her proposals. Among other things, she showed little resistance when put under pressure. The situation did not improve with the interview given to Fox News, even though, like the others, it was pre-recorded. There Harris it also failed to adequately exploit the debate with Trump of September 10th. Although she was able to provoke the tycoon by pushing him to reveal himself out of focus for large segments of the confrontation, the vice president was unable, in that context, to shake off the image of a vague and pre-established candidate.
Of course, someone will object that, compared to Bidenthe Harris is mobilizing more voters and is more effective in generating enthusiasm. This is true, but up to a certain point. Under the current electoral system in the United States, winning the popular vote at the national level may not be enough. For this reason, if you want to get to the White House, it is necessary not to mobilize voters in general but to mobilize crucial segments of the electorate in key states. Here, according to polls, is the Harris is performing worse than Biden in 2020 with respect to some of these segments: Catholics, African Americans and Hispanics. We repeat: this does not mean that the vice president is electorally doomed, also because she can count on a fundamental electorate such as the female one. However, it means that, beyond some structural causes, the weakness currently shown by his campaign is also the result of some significant errors. Errors which, just three weeks before the vote, will be quite difficult to correct.
