Donald Trump he is probably resorting to a strategic ambiguity approach on the Ukrainian crisis. And the speeches recently given by him seem to confirm this Vladimir Putin And Volodymyr Zelensky.
The tsar was particularly harsh, referring to the authorization, which came from Joe Bidento the use of Atacms missiles on Russian territory. “Since that time, as we have repeatedly emphasized, a regional conflict in Ukraine, previously provoked by the West, has acquired elements of a global character,” the Tsar said. “In case of escalation of aggressive actions, we will respond decisively and speculatively,” he continued, before adding: “The use of such weapons by the enemy is not capable of changing the course of military actions in the area of special military operation”. “We consider ourselves authorized to use our weapons against the military structures of those countries that allow their weapons to be used against our structures.”
“The world must react, Putin must be stopped,” he replied Volodymyr Zelensky. “Putin hit our city of Dnipro, one of the largest cities in Ukraine. It is Russia’s second step towards escalation in a year. The first such step was North Korea’s involvement in the war against Ukraine, with a contingent of at least 11,000 soldiers,” he added.
The statements of the two leaders should probably be read as coded messages addressed to the American president in pectore. The latter has in fact remained strangely silent on two elements of the ongoing crisis in Ukraine. First: contrary to the Kremlin’s denial, it neither confirmed nor denied the alleged phone call which, according to the Washington Postwould have had with Putin a few days after the electoral victory. Second: Trump did not comment on the ok of Biden to the use of Atacms missiles on Russian territory. Two significant silences.
The first silence is a way to put pressure on Zelenskyin order to convince him to sit at the negotiating table, renouncing his historic precondition: that of a unilateral withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukrainian territory. It’s as if the tycoon wanted to say to Zelensky: “If you don’t sit at the table, I’ll make an agreement without you.” The second silence instead puts pressure on Putingiving him a warning. Trump it relies on unpredictability to restore deterrence before any possible negotiations. And he doesn’t want the Tsar to believe that he is willing to do anything to achieve a quick peace. The Russian president was therefore shocked by the lack of conviction of Trump of the move of Biden on Atacms. And now he probably feels less confident.
So here are the latest statements from Zelensky And Putin they must be read as responses to the silences of Trump. The Ukrainian leader, despite having recently softened his position on Crimea, wanted to underline North Korea’s involvement to the tycoon, to dissuade him from any scenario of a bilateral agreement with Russia. Putinin his speech, he wanted to make a loud voice so as not to appear intimidated by the silence of Trump. Coincidentally, during his speech, he criticized the withdrawal of the United States from the INF treaty: a treaty from which Washington withdrew in 2019, i.e. at the time of the administration Trump.
Obviously we don’t know if the tycoon’s negotiating strategy will be successful. However, it should be remembered that diplomacy is made up not only of dialogue but also of pressure and threats. Trump wants that Zelensky sit at the table but know at the same time that you can’t afford a appeasement towards the Kremlin: such a scenario would trigger a domino effect, which Trump it would then pay in other contexts (such as the Indo-Pacific). If the tycoon’s objective was to put pressure on the two belligerents in the meantime, at least for the moment he seems to have succeeded. We’ll see how he handles the dossier once he takes office.
