The half -yearly accounts of Stellantis disappoint expectations: 2.3 billion net loss, collapse of cash flow and discount margins. Analysts cut estimates and the market reacts coldly. Between duties, devaluations and delays in the models, the car group struggles to remain in the overtaking lane.
Stellantis went straight against a wall. The accounts of the first half of 2025 arrived as a bucket of cold water on a title that had long since showed more rust than bright reflections. The result? A net loss of 2.3 billion euros, when analysts expected a modest but dignified profit from 25 million. A fair difference. The market reaction was quite nervous: after a first reduction of more than 2%, you are a little recovery, almost zeroing the loss. . The minimum intraday – 7,612 euros – reports Stellantis at the April levels. And the complete results are still missing, expected on July 29th. If these are the premises, perhaps it would be better to keep the airbag ready.
A lethal mix: duties, devaluations and renovations
The disaster, it must be said, does not completely come by surprise. The Renault alarm, last week, had already prepared the ground: when the engine in the sector goes out, there are hardly those who remain in the racing lane. But Stellantis did better – or worse – with a lethal mix of duties, devaluations, cancellations of various projects and renovations that engraved with 3.3 billion before taxes. In short: when you say go crazy and let yourself go.
Cassa in red and few explanations
Among the painful notes, the cash flow stands out: -3 billion, compared to a consensus that was around +1.1 billion. Philippe Houchois (Jefferies) remained speechless: he expected +1.4 billion. Result? Not only disappointment, but also lack of details on circulating capital and renovations. In practice, a balance with the lights off.
Operational profit reduced to the bone
The most depressing data? The rectified operational profit: only 0.5 billion against the estimated 2.1. The operating margin? Just 0.7%. A more discount percentage than multinational. The fault of everything: industrial costs, unfavorable change, impact of duties, mixed mixed mix and also the “planned production loss”. Only cares are missing.
Analysts are divided between resignation and pessimism
The world of analysts reacted with a mixture of pragmatism and resignation. Morgan Stanley did not surprise himself: “We expected it”. Well, at least someone sleeps serene. Citi made two accounts and estimated an annual operational profit of just 4-5 billion, far from 7.9 scheduled for 2026. And on the possibility of seeing a dividend worthy of the name, better not to get illusions: at most 0.36 euros per share, against 0.68 last year. Other than buyback. Here everything is cut.
North America and Europe in braking
It is not better on the shipments front: in North America -25% in the second quarter. And Europe? Less 6%, with late models and transition still on the high seas. The only green traffic light comes from Brazil, Africa and the Middle East, but it is certainly not enough to save the trip.
Cautious rating and objectives revised downward
On the assessments front, UBS maintains its neutral, with targets at 9.70 euros. Banca Akros, Intesa Sanpaolo and Citi are also cautious, all with neutral rating and target price for 9 euros. But it is quota to launch the strongest alarm: “The peak of profits between 2022 and 2023 – close to 6 euros per share – was an isolated and unrepeatable case”. Those who hoped in a return to those levels would do better to invest in nostalgia.
The few optimistic notes are not enough
Of course, Jefferies and Morgan Stanley remain more optimistic: bray rating and target at 11.50 and 8.50 euros respectively. But they also know that the market looks at the facts, not dreams. Today Bloomberg consent says: 8 Buy, 22 Hold, 5 Sell. And an average target price for 9.86 euros. On paper, +31% compared to the current price. But as they say in the world of car: intentions do not start the engine.
A future to rewrite
In summary, Stellantis found himself behind the wheel with the empty tank, the overheated engine and the broken navigator. And the market does not forgive. To return to the roadway, real margins are needed, positive case and less powerpoint full of promises. Otherwise the risk is that even the best European engine ends up scrapped in the parking lot of lost opportunities.
