The fall of the Barnier government has put Emmanuel Macron in serious difficulty. The French president has ruled out resigning, denying any responsibility in the ongoing crisis. However, the problems for him remain numerous.
First of all, a survey commissioned by Figaro recorded that for 46% of French people the blame for the current situation is to be attributed to him: only 11% say the same about the Rassemblement National and just 10% about the New Popular Front. Secondly, it is not certain that the tenant of the Elysée will be able to find the numbers for a new government in the next few hours: which risks throwing him into embarrassment in front of the American president in pectore, Donald Trump, who is arriving in Paris to attend the inauguration of Notre Dame. Thirdly, even if he manages to form a new government quickly, it is very likely that it will once again prove to be a shaky government. For now, Macron is sounding out the Socialist Party, which has shown itself open to being part of a government: a circumstance that has irritated Jean-Luc Mélenchon in recent hours. Furthermore, it is clear that the occupant of the Elysée is trying to sow discord within the New Popular Front.
Whatever the case, the big problem for Macron is how to manage to get to these conditions until the natural end of his presidential mandatei.e. 2027. His “divide and conquer” strategy seems to have reached a limit point. And it will now be increasingly difficult to relaunch it. Granted and not conceded that a new executive could be born soon, it is likely that it will last a few months like the one led by Barnier. Moreover, this is the consequential outcome of the “holy alliance” repeatedly invoked by the French president against the Rassemblement National.
Rather than basing his political action on a project, Macron relied on the cordon sanitaire strategy. And these are the results. The dissolution of the National Assembly and the subsequent elections allowed him to maneuver to split the opposing sides. But, in the long run, his plan failed, literally throwing France into chaos. The country is increasingly turning in on itself, while it continues to lose influence abroad (just think of the political-military decline of Paris in the Sahel region). Those who, even in our area, had elected Macron as an inspirational leader should perhaps seriously start to change their minds.
