The war in Ukraine intensifies with a new wave of attacks from Moscow and an escalation that seems increasingly linked to the political future of the United States. According to Meduza, Vladimir Putin has set a strategic objective to obtain significant results before the inauguration of Donald Trump, whose return to the presidency could redefine the balance of the conflict.
The Kremlin’s strategy has become more aggressive in recent weeks. On November 21, Moscow launched a new ballistic weapon, the Orešnik missile, against Dnipro. Putin, in his speech to the nation, warned that the use of this type of armament could also extend against targets in NATO countries, further intensifying tensions at the international level.
Meanwhile, four civilians were killed and seven injured in a mortar shelling by Ukrainian forces on a civilian bus in Novaya Kakhovka, in the Russian-controlled part of the Kherson region. The pro-Russian governor Vladimir Saldo reported this on his Telegram channel. “The tragedy took the lives of four of our fellow citizens. Doctors are doing everything possible to save the injured, providing them with the necessary assistance.”the governor said. This episode highlights the drama of the conflict also for civilians, trapped in a terrible spiral of violence.
The Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed a large-scale attack with 188 drones, the highest number ever launched since the beginning of the conflict, and four Iskander-M ballistic missiles. As reported by Ukrinform, drones hit critical infrastructure in several regions, causing significant damage to private and condominium buildings, but without casualties. Ukrainian defenses managed to shoot down 76 of them, while others hit sensitive areas. Five drones instead headed towards Belarus. In the city of Ternopil, Mayor Serhiy Nadal stated that “Efforts to restore electricity are incessant”but transportation and essential services remain seriously compromised.
To further complicate the picture, on November 19 the Washington Post reported that US President Joe Biden had authorized the supply of anti-personnel mines to Ukraine. According to the newspaper, the mines sent will be “non-persistent”, designed to deactivate within days or weeks, thus reducing the danger to civilians. Pentagon officials said these devices, along with ATACMS missiles already in use, represent “one of the most useful measures” to slow down the Russian advance, concentrating its use mainly in the eastern regions. However, the decision was criticized by Human Rights Watch, which called the event “shocking and devastating”underlining that even non-persistent mines continue to pose a risk to civilians.
According to several sources, Russian troops are advancing on multiple fronts, conquering villages in the Kharkiv region and intensifying fighting in Donbass. In Kuraĥovo, Russian forces are attempting to encircle Ukrainian defenses, while in southern Donetsk they have taken control of strategic villages such as Kopanky.
Meanwhile, the Russian president reiterated his openness to negotiations, however, posing conditions that Ukrainian president Vladimir Zelenskij categorically rejected, defining them incompatible with the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country. As reported by the BBC, the demands made by the Kremlin include recognition of the annexation of the regions of Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporozhye – home to Europe’s largest nuclear power plant – and Kherson, Kiev’s formal renunciation of its accession plans to NATO, the recognition of Crimea as Russian territory and the lifting of all international sanctions. For Zelenskiy, such conditions do not constitute a basis for dialogue, but represent an attempt to legitimize the Russian occupation.
Despite new declarations of readiness for dialogue, Moscow’s military moves seem to contradict these intentions. According to The Telegraph, Putin is aiming to consolidate territorial gains before Donald Trump’s inauguration in January 2025, an event that could mark a reduction in US involvement in the conflict. This scenario has pushed the Kremlin to intensify operations on the ground, adopting increasingly aggressive tactics, including threats to use ballistic weapons against Europe.
In response to Russian escalation, Ukraine has strengthened its counteroffensives. The Russian Defense Ministry reported that US-made ATACMS missiles hit an air base in Kursk, destroying emplacements of S-400 anti-aircraft systems. Although seven out of eight missiles were intercepted, one reached its target, causing significant damage. Kiev also struck strategic infrastructure in the Kherson region, although Governor Saldo accused Ukrainian forces of deliberately targeting civilians, a charge the Kiev government has categorically denied.
Trump’s return to the White House represents an unknown for the future of the conflict. The Republican president has repeatedly stated that the United States should not be “the main financier of the war in Ukraine”. Its policy could result in a drastic reduction in military aid to Kiev, an eventuality that Moscow seems to want to exploit, trying to extract territorial and strategic gains before the Western approach undergoes a change of direction.
The war between Russia and Ukraine increasingly appears as a crossroads destined to shape the future of Europe and, perhaps, of the entire planet. The absence of a concrete agreement, combined with the geopolitical uncertainty linked to the evolution of American politics, keeps the war suspended in a precarious balance, where the risk of escalation on a global scale becomes more tangible every day.
