Meloni, Saied and the Abraham Accords

There is an often overlooked aspect of the ongoing conflict between the Meloni government and Tunisia: that of the Abraham Accords. But let's go in order.

The Tunisian president, Kais Saied, has often criticized Israel and has also officially ruled out wanting to formally recognize it. Yet, last November, you effectively blocked a bill from the Tunisian parliament, which aimed to criminalize the normalization of relations between Tunis and Jerusalem. Coincidentally, Al Jazeeraa Qatari broadcaster very close to the Muslim Brotherhood, published an article very critical of that move, accusing Saied of hypocrisy.

But that is not all. The Tunisian president's decision must be linked to another element: in recent months, ties between Tunisia and Saudi Arabia have significantly strengthened. In July, Riyadh granted the North African country a soft loan of $500 million. It was also last December, when the Saudis signed seven memoranda of understanding with Tunis in various sectors, including industrial cooperation.

Now, it is no secret that the recent Iranian attack on Israel has worried Riyadh, which, although it initiated détente with Tehran last year, continues to fear the nuclear ambitions of the Khomeinist regime. Let's be clear: it's not as if the Saudis have broken off relations with the Iranians at the moment. However, there is a slightly colder attitude, which could push Riyadh to move closer to Jerusalem. A scenario that is all the more concrete especially if Donald Trump should he win the presidential elections in November.

The Republican candidate in fact intends to restore the policy of “maximum pressure” on the ayatollahs, to dust off the logic of the Abraham Accords and thus push Israel and Saudi Arabia to normalize relations: a normalization which, last September, seemed close , but which was derailed due to the brutal attack on October 7, perpetrated by Hamas against the Jewish state.

So, should he return to the White House, Trump would focus heavily on the return of the Abraham Accords. If the Saudis and the Israelis are betting heavily on this anti-Iranian scenario, Saied he left his hands free to possibly be part of the game. Already in 2022, the American conservative think tank Heritage Foundation had hoped for a normalization of relations between Tunis and Jerusalem. Furthermore, a similar perspective would allow in case a Saied to inflict a harsh political blow on the Muslim Brotherhood, with which he is notoriously on bad terms.

The shore of Giorgia Meloniwith Tunisia it then turns out to be fundamental. So far as Trump returned president and Saied should it opt ​​for normalization with Israel, the Italian government could play a crucial role, given its excellent relations with both Tunis and Jerusalem. A role that would obviously be greatly appreciated by the White House and which could increase our country's influence in the Mediterranean.