The problem has arrived on the table of the European Commission. The housing emergency has become a priority issue given that it concerns not only the weakest sections of the population and the least industrialized countries, but hits the middle class and young people hard, with increases in house prices and rents exceeding incomes. In December last year, therefore just a few weeks ago, the EU Commissioner for Energy and Housing Policies, the Danish social democrat Dan Jørgensen, presented the European affordable housing plan with the aim of making homes more affordable and sustainable through investments and, above all, support for member states.
Now, it’s not that there is no construction in Europe given that from 2021 to today the pace of new construction is around 1,650,000 units. But they are not enough and it is estimated that in the next decade another 650,000 per year will be needed. The European Investment Bank has estimated a gap of 925 thousand homes between needs and construction starts for 2025 alone.
This is for various reasons. On the one hand, average prices have increased in the last 10 years by around 60 percent: obviously, since it is a very vast reality that brings together large capitals and agricultural areas, it is a figure that requires in-depth analysis and territorial focus. In any case, to give an idea of the trend, house values grew in the second quarter of 2025 by 5.3 percent, after the overall increase of 53 percent in the period 2010-2014. Rents have also risen in recent years, but much less: on average we are talking about +20 percent and +27.8 percent in the last 15 years. In some countries, however, double-digit annual increases are recorded, such as Portugal (+17.2 percent), Bulgaria (+15.5) and Hungary (+15.1) while Italy stands at +3.9 percent.
There are those who attribute the shortage of accommodation to the explosion of tourism, especially after Covid, but this is a simplistic and reductive reading of the problem. Of course, overtourism, with the demand for short-term rentals, has led property owners to choose the solution of holiday homes, which are more profitable and above all safer against arrears.
This could be true, but only in part, for Italy where long, onerous and cumbersome legal proceedings still make owners the weaker party compared to those who break contracts by skipping payments. The phenomenon, however, is European and also affects countries where building ownership is much more protected than here and defaulters are hit without much consideration.
So the topic is much more complex. There is a growing demand from many categories, made even stronger by the increase in single-family households, especially the young, the separated and the elderly. It must be said that the construction sector has shown very significant resilience, despite the increase in costs and interest rates recorded in recent years.
However, we are at historic lows in new construction and the Jørgensen report points to a structural gap in the gap between growing demand and new housing.
In fact, it is estimated that around 9.6 million homes are missing across Europe to meet current needs. In 2025, residential construction production hit its lowest point in 10 years (approximately 1.46 million new units). Italy is among the last countries for new construction, with only 1.6 homes completed per thousand inhabitants, compared to 7 in Ireland.
But it is equally true that in our country, according to a study by the IFel Foundation, the Institute for Finance and the Local Economy recently presented within Anci, the Association of Italian Municipalities, there is a heritage of 35 million homes (approximately one for every 1.5 inhabitants) of which 9 million and 600 thousand are empty: we are talking about 27.3 percent of the total. An impressive figure, which however must be read carefully, because we do not highlight second or third homes (which families use for holidays and are therefore uninhabited), while the count also includes dilapidated and renovated properties. But the figure certainly gives pause for thought, especially when compared with that of other countries such as France, where empty houses are 7.8 percent of the total, and Germany at 4.4 percent.
But it is precisely the general picture that is different. In Italy, 55.4 percent of homes are owned and 13.1 percent are rented. In France, 33.3 percent of homes are rented, in Germany even 53.4 percent. If we consider that beyond the Alps second homes make up 9.9 percent of the total and in Germany only 0.7 percent, we can say that ours is the country that appreciates home ownership more than anyone else, while the German model appears fundamentally centered on renting.
As is natural, even in this matter the Italian picture is very diversified. Empty accommodation is over 40 percent in Reggio Calabria, 32.5 percent in Palermo, while it is only 12.4 percent in Milan, 15.5 percent in Bologna, 14.9 percent in Florence. For Italy then two very specific factors weigh. The first is given by a social housing situation considered largely insufficient, with public policies fragmented at local level and inefficient in their management. Social housing in our country is only 2.6 percent of the total, with few new assignments (16 thousand per year) and illegal phenomena such as illegal occupations. Furthermore, the turnover rate is very low, with a turnover of just over 2 percent, therefore with assignments that seem to correspond to a sort of annuity, while in the private sector we are at 25 percent.
But in the private sector there is then to consider the almost mythological difficulty of the owners in obtaining the release of the rented apartment in case the tenant stops paying the rent and condominium expenses. A problem that seems to concern both the rules in force and the jurisprudence and which constitutes a heavy disincentive to rent accommodation without effective and full protection of the right to property.
On the other hand, even the strong development of short-term rentals through digital platforms – which more than one would like to regulate in a reductive way – are often the only solution to have control of one’s property.
All this makes the housing issue a problem that needs to be addressed seriously. A theme that at a European level impacts the social structure of the continent. On average, Europeans spend 32 percent of their monthly income on housing. For singles and low-income families, this share often exceeds 40 percent. We will soon see if the European Plan will be the right answer, simplifying urban planning rules and directing adequate funds for a real revival of the construction sector.
Here, the 2026 Budget Law introduced a new Housing Plan (200 million in 2026-2027) with funds for social housing (young, elderly, vulnerable), extension of the renovation bonuses (50 percent for the first home, 36 for others) and exclusion of the first home from the ISEE up to 91,500 euros (200 thousand in metropolitan cities), combining them with specific measures such as the rent-to-buy, incentives for separated parents and caregivers, and strengthened building compliance checks.
The hope is that a correct intervention on the housing emergency will be combined with respect for the market and the protection of those who have invested in the brick often to ensure an income or a more peaceful old age.
