From Hormuz to the Red Sea, without forgetting the Black Sea. Millions of barrels of oil are missing on the market, and without peace the costs will increase.
There worst energy crisis in history continues unabated, yet, looking at global energy markets, it seems that the closure of Hormuz and growing tensions a Bab el Mandeb are seen as nothing more than a passing hiccup.
The brief panic and the return to “normality”
Of course, panic had broken out yesterday with oil prices Brent And Wti (the main references for world markets) which had jumped respectively to 101 And 94 dollars per barrel, at the highest levels since May but still well below the peaks reached between March and April.
The main reason was probably the news that he received Houthis Tehran’s Yemeni allies had followed through on their threats to block Saudi ports bombing two oil tankers and blocking the passage of 10 other ships in the Strait of Bab el Mandeb.
Once the psychological threshold of 100 dollars has been exceeded, however today There has been an incredible drop in priceswith Brent falling to 97 dollars and WTI to 90. A drop made even more incredible by the total absence of news that could have justified this decline.
Tehran refuses ceasefire
According to what was reported by the American media, in fact, Tehran has reportedly rejected ceasefire proposals in recent days advanced by Washington.
Yesterday the New York Times revealed that Iran rejected a ceasefire proposal presented directly by the Iraqi Prime Minister, Ali al-Zaidion behalf of the President Donald Trumpsince it would have left unresolved the crucial question of control of Hormuz, which Tehran claims.
While as reported by Axios, Iranian negotiators have clarified to the mediators of not wanting to accept a “Gaza-style” truce, i.e. a formal agreement that however leaves the United States and Israel the freedom to resume attacks at will.
The price of energy will rise
In short, there is no respite on the horizonand the path to escalation seems to have already been taken, as confirmed by the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. Without a lasting agreement and a concrete reopening of Hormuz (through which approximately 100 ships passed per day before the war) energy markets will not be able to stabilize.
In fact, the situation will get worse. There are no alternatives in the short term. The extraction of crude oil from America, Russia and all other countries not directly involved in the conflict is already at its highest.
America’s strategic oil reserves (but also those of other Western countries, such as Japan), They are quickly running out. The latest official data International Energy Agency (relating to June, before the new escalation) indicated global supply still 9.4 million b/d below pre-war levels. A negative estimate which, according to a July 20th note from Goldman Sachs, has now worsened to approximately 13 million barrels/day only for Hormuz
The war in Ukraine also serves as a further amplifier of the energy crisis. Ukrainian drone attacks against oil tankers being loaded at the terminal Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) on the Black Sea have forced loading operations to be repeatedly suspendedthreatening around 1.5 million barrels per day of Kazakh oil exports. The same CPC that manages over 80% of the landlocked country’s oil exports and around 2% of the world’s crude supply.
Add the ban on diesel exports imposed by the Kremlin due to Ukrainian attacks on refineries (11% of global diesel was exported from Moscow) and all the ingredients for the global energy crisis were served.
There is no escape, unless there is a lasting and sustainable end to the Middle Eastern conflict, in a few months the world will head straight towards a real energy “catastrophe”, which will involve the prices of oil, petrol and, probably, also electricity.
