Politics

Pakistan’s apparent order – Panorama

Can a nuclear power risk falling into the hands of jihadist terrorism? This is what international analysts ask themselves when observing the Prime Minister’s Pakistan Shehbaz Sharifincreasingly screwed into an economic and security crisis with unpredictable consequences. Especially after yet another incursion by the Taliban into some disputed villages along the so-called Durand line, which theoretically separates the two Islamic countries and where the Christmas clashes caused around a hundred victims, before Islamabad restored order. An order destined not to last, as the area is one of the most impervious and rebellious in the world. Fifth in the world by population (240 million inhabitants) and with an army that is decisive in directing politics and the economy, it can be said that Pakistan’s internal stability depends entirely on the central state and its coercive force. Which, however, struggles a lot to hold together that mosaic of ethnic groups born from the bloody partition with India in 1947 and still today conceived as a sanctuary for the Muslims of the Indian Subcontinent. Its very name before independence is indicative: it contracts the names of the home regions of the Muslims of northern India, namely P for Punjab, A for Afghania, K for Kashmir, I for Indus, S for Sindh and Tan for Baluchistan These multiple souls are united so far by rigid military control and a developed economic system which however is based almost exclusively on subsidies for primary goods and on public spending which, instead of being directed towards education and infrastructure, is swallowed up by military spending . Furthermore, the collection of taxes is difficult and does not affect the income and privileges of the Pakistani political-economic caste at the top of which the generals still sit, who distribute positions and award orders according to a para-mafia scheme. Just look at its most significant prime ministers, to understand the country: like Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, ousted by a military coup (and then executed); Nawaz Sharifremoved in 1999 by General Musharraf; Imran Khan, who came to power thanks to the generals and was then kicked out by them and his party dissolved because of an attempt to free himself from their dependence (today he is serving ten years in prison for corruption). The Khan affair itself was a detonator for the internal Islamist oppositions, who want to break this mix of political, economic and military power: in the aftermath of the conviction, there were attacks on barracks and police stations.

The protests soon got out of hand to the military, and so today in the country there is a surge in attacks, including terrorist ones, fueled both by local insurrectionists and international extremist groups: together, these armed oppositions represent a serious threat to internal stability. In 2024 alone, Pakistan recorded a significant increase in violent attacks, rising to 856 cases compared to the 645 reported in 2023. Most were concentrated in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, on the border with Afghanistan, where the Tehrik militias operate mainly. i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), an alliance of former members of al-Qaida, ISIS and the Taliban formed in 2007 to bring together the many souls of the opposition to the Pakistani army. They are the most significant threat to Islamabad today, because they know how to take advantage of the power vacuum due to the area’s fragile governance and insufficient security forces. The TTP has its base of operations in Afghanistan and, since the Taliban took control of the country in August 2021, it has acquired an ever-increasing capacity to carry out cross-border attacks thanks also to the weapons abandoned by the United States after its withdrawal. Islamabad’s periodic attempts to reach an agreement with the TTP to secure a ceasefire have been of little avail: the latter’s demands include the complete withdrawal of military forces from the former Federally Administered Tribal Areas (Fata), a region traditionally considered “without government”. ยป and the exclusive prerogative of al-Qaida, which the Pakistani state has attempted to integrate in a more structured way in recent years, but without success. The central government also has another problem called Balochistan: a region characterized by a complex mix of rebel groups and ethnicities with separatist tendencies, continues to be the epicenter of violence directed against the soldiers who patrol the area.

The Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) is leading them.an ethno-nationalist movement that opposes the massive Chinese economic presence in the region, represented by the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Among his lethal attacks: last November the attack on the Quetta train station, 26 victims; first, in August, six attacks in 24 hours, killing 35 civilians and 14 members of the armed forces. The current lack of resources and political instability have therefore weakened security forces and intelligence services in countering and preventing such attacks. Also because the military is simultaneously engaged on other fronts, not least the one that has been taking place less than 200 kilometers from the capital for eighty years: the conflict in Kahsmir, a region disputed with India at the north-western end of the subcontinent. Theater of one of the most prolonged crises in South Asia, Islamabad does not intend to cede to New Delhi that strip of land (where just 4.5 million people live) still under Pakistani control. In this puzzle of tensions, there are those who fear for the very survival of the State as we know it today and predict a future balkanization of the country, if the armed forces were to collapse on the Syrian model. And this is only the best hypothesis, considering that a collapse of the central state would compromise a nuclear arsenal estimated at around 165 atomic warheads and which, according to the Arms Control Association (ACA), represents the fastest growing atomic program globally . The political scenario of contemporary Pakistan therefore appears marked by sectarian violence which overlaps with the continuous mass demonstrations organized by supporters of former Prime Minister Khan, whose removal has perhaps definitively compromised the stability of an increasingly fragile and corrupt political system.