For millions of Italian pensioners, December could arrive without that additional sum which in some years has made it possible to recover the difference between the increases already recognized and the inflation actually recorded, but the prospect of a zero adjustment does not mean that the checks are destined to remain unchanged also in 2027. On the contrary, the price trend is fueling expectations for the next revaluation of pensions, with increases which, based on the hypotheses currently available, could approach 2.9% and translate into monthly increases of 29 euros for those who receive a pension of one thousand euros and of 58 euros for those who receive a gross allowance of two thousand euros.
The point, however, is to distinguish two operations that risk being confused: on the one hand the adjustment relating to the revaluation applied in 2026, which could close without any additional amount, on the other the new adjustment expected from January 2027, which will depend on the trend of inflation and the equalization rules applicable to the various pension treatments.
Because the 2026 pension adjustment could be zero
To understand what will happen in the coming months, we need to start from January 2026, when the INPS applied a provisional revaluation of 1.4% to pension checks, established by the interministerial decree of 19 November 2025 on the basis of the price trend recorded in the previous year. This is the mechanism through which pensions are periodically adjusted to inflation, with the aim of limiting the loss of purchasing power, and which provides for a subsequent verification of the index used to establish whether the amounts already paid should be corrected.
The indications currently available suggest that the definitive value of the reference inflation for 2025 may coincide with the 1.4% already recognized by the INPS, making the adjustment relating to the 2026 revaluation essentially null and void. In other words, if the percentage is also confirmed by the ministerial decree, there will be no difference to recover and pensioners will not receive further arrears linked to the adjustment applied this year.
However, another aspect must also be clarified: the possible adjustment of the 2026 equalization is expected in the following year, so one should not automatically expect an additional item in the December payslip. The monthly salary at the end of the year may however be higher due to the thirteenth month or may present variations linked to tax withholdings, but these are different components compared to the revaluation of pensions.
Pension revaluation 2027: why the increases could be more significant
If the adjustment for 2026 seems destined to close without surprises, the situation changes when we look at next year’s checks, because the trend in inflation during 2026 is outlining a different scenario compared to the one that had determined the 1.4% adjustment.
The revaluation of pensions is in fact determined on the basis of the trend in consumer prices for families of workers and employees, net of tobacco, through a mechanism that takes inflation into account and allows the amounts of the checks to be periodically updated. The estimates currently available indicate the possibility of a revaluation of around 2.7%, with a higher scenario which could approach 2.9% if the price trend in the coming months confirms the most recent trends.
These are important numbers for understanding the possible evolution of the allowances, but they must not be interpreted as revaluation percentages already approved: the increase in prices measured in a single month, the average inflation acquired and the index used to adjust pensions do not in fact represent the same quantity.
The official percentage will however have to be established by the Ministry of Economy through the provision expected in the autumn, while any difference compared to the definitive figure will be regulated subsequently according to the ordinary equalization mechanism.
How much pensions will increase in 2027: the figures from 800 to 2,000 euros
To understand what could actually change in the family budget, it is possible to translate the currently hypothesized percentages into monthly increases, taking some of the most common pension amounts as a reference and considering two scenarios: a revaluation of 2.7% and one of 2.9%.
The simulations reported below concern gross monthly pensions entirely included in the full revaluation range and do not take into account any regulatory changes, increases or tax variations that could affect the amount actually credited.
| Current gross pension | Increase with 2.7% | Increase with 2.9% |
|---|---|---|
| 800 euros | +€21.60 | +€23.20 |
| 1,000 euros | +€27.00 | +€29.00 |
| 1,200 euros | +€32.40 | +€34.80 |
| 1,500 euros | +€40.50 | +€43.50 |
| 1,800 euros | +€48.60 | +€52.20 |
| 2,000 euros | +€54.00 | +€58.00 |
In the case of a gross pension of one thousand euros per month, an adjustment of 2.7% would therefore bring the allowance to 1,027 euros, while with a revaluation of 2.9% the amount would rise to 1,029 euros. For those who receive two thousand euros, however, the new treatment could reach 2,054 or 2,058 euros respectively, with an increase which, in the highest hypothesis, would correspond to 754 euros gross over thirteen monthly payments.
Naturally, the amounts indicated are simulations and not already approved increases: the actual revaluation will depend on the percentage that will be made official for the next year and, in the case of checks for higher amounts, on the application of the band system envisaged by the legislation.
Minimum pensions and higher allowances: the increases will not be the same for everyone
The revaluation mechanism does not provide that each pensioner automatically receives the same percentage increase on the entire allowance, because the legislation distinguishes different amount bands and recognizes full protection for the lowest payments, progressively reducing the equalization amount applied to the higher bands.
According to the rules currently in force, the revaluation is recognized in the amount of 100% for the pension range up to four times the INPS minimum payment, 90% on the portion between four and five times the minimum and 75% on the portion that exceeds five times the minimum payment. The calculation is therefore carried out in brackets, without necessarily applying a single reduced percentage to the entire pension treatment.
For 2026 the minimum reference payment is equal to 611.85 euros per month, a figure which brings the threshold of four times the minimum to 2,447.40 euros and that of five times to 3,059.25 euros. These are the current reference values, intended to be updated with the new equalization.
Precisely for this reason, while a check for one thousand or two thousand euros could fully benefit from the hypothesized increase, for a pension of three thousand or four thousand euros the calculation will require considering the different bands, with an overall increase that will not simply correspond to the application of 2.7% or 2.9% on the entire amount.
A specific issue concerns minimum pensions, for which it is necessary to distinguish the ordinary revaluation of the treatment from any additional increases provided for by law. Applying only an increase of 2.9% to the current basic amount of 611.85 euros, the result would be approximately 629.59 euros per month, but the amount actually due to individual pensioners could be different in the presence of further benefits or regulatory interventions.
When will the increases arrive and what to check on the payslip
The next deadline to keep an eye on will be that of the ministerial decree which will define the revaluation to be applied starting from January 2027, when the INPS will proceed with the updating of pension payments on the basis of the officially established percentage.
Changes attributable to the 2027 equalization and possible adjustment operations relating to the previous year could therefore appear in the new payslip, even if, if the 1.4% percentage already applied in 2026 were confirmed, there would be no further arrears to be paid for that period.
To verify the increase actually recognized, it will be useful to consult the online service dedicated to the pension slip, available on the INPS portal, through which it is possible to view the monthly amount and compare the different payments, distinguishing the increases due to the revaluation from the variations determined by tax withholdings or other operations.
Finally, there remains a consideration that goes beyond percentages and directly concerns the spending capacity of pensioners: even if the increases expected for 2027 were to approach 2.9%, the revaluation would mainly have the function of compensating for the increase in the cost of living, without necessarily translating into an improvement in purchasing power. For a family living on a pension of a thousand euros, receiving 29 more every month could represent a small additional margin in the household budget, but its real value will depend above all on how much food spending, bills and all those consumption items that affect disposable income on a daily basis will continue to cost.
