The arrest of Nicolas Maduro by the United States triggers a harsh reaction from China and Russia. In the background, the Monroe Doctrine, Venezuelan oil and new global balances
China and Russia have condemned the capture of Nicolas Maduro by the United States on Saturday on Donald Trump’s orders. “China is deeply shocked and strongly condemns the blatant use of force by the United States against a sovereign state and action against its president,” thundered the Chinese Foreign Ministry, before adding: “Such hegemonic acts by the United States seriously violate international law and the sovereignty of Venezuela, and threaten peace and security in Latin America and the Caribbean region. China firmly opposes it.” “This morning, the United States carried out an act of armed aggression against Venezuela. This raises deep concern and condemnation”, said the Moscow Foreign Ministry for its part.
Russia and China’s criticism of the United States is not that surprising. Both Moscow and Beijing have in fact often seen the Chavista regime as one of their main points of reference in Latin America. Without forgetting that the People’s Republic of China is currently the main buyer of Venezuelan oil. All this obviously comes into conflict with the Trump administration, which, since it took office in January 2025, has promoted an updated re-edition of the Monroe Doctrine, aimed at intensifying US influence on the Western Hemisphere both to stem the flow of drugs and illegal immigrants and to counter the maneuvers of hostile foreign powers.
That said, there are two alternative scenarios that emerge on the horizon following Maduro’s capture. Let’s start with the first one. As we have seen, the reaction from Moscow and Beijing has been harsh. However, it should also be underlined that, in the last four months, it is not that these two capitals have done too much to concretely support the Caracas regime in its growing tensions with the United States. A first hypothesis is therefore that, net of superficial declarations, Maduro’s capture may have inaugurated a sort of tacit Yalta 2.0: a first form of division of areas of influence between the great powers, which could soon involve Donbass for Russia and Taiwan for China.
A second possibility is that Maduro’s capture could usher in an increase in tension between Washington (on the one hand) and Moscow and Beijing (on the other). In this case, Russia and China would not accept Trump’s re-edition of the Monroe Doctrine. In such a scenario, it is not excluded that Beijing could try to put a spoke in the wheels of the White House in Africa and the Middle East, accusing the current American president of being a sort of revived neocon. On the other hand, Trump could however leverage Saturday’s operation to increase US pressure on Russia and China, just as a warning on the issues of Ukraine and Taiwan respectively. Only time will tell which of these two scenarios we find ourselves facing. Be that as it may, in one sense or another, one thing is certain: power politics is fully back in vogue.
