After breaking diplomatic relations with Asmara, Addis Ababa has once again asked for direct access to the Red Sea. And in the meantime, increasingly worried by Ethiopian ambitions, Egypt, Eritrea, Somalia and Sudan strengthen ties
Fibrillation continues to grow dangerously in the Horn of Africa. On Monday, the Ethiopian prime minister, Abiy Ahmedhas returned to ask for direct access to the Red Sea for his country. “Based on the principle of give and take, we will work diligently to ensure that Ethiopia is landlocked,” he said. These are words destined to rekindle tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea.
The strong geopolitical tensions between African countries
Last week, the two countries severed diplomatic relations after Addis Ababa accused Asmara of fomenting the Tigrayan rebels who are fighting in the northern part of Ethiopian territory. Not only that. The Eritrean government has long feared the ambitions, nurtured by Abiy Ahmedwhich aim to give Ethiopia direct access to the sea: access that the country lost in 1993, following the independence of Eritrea.
But that’s not all. In recent days, Addis Ababa has claimed that Egypt and Sudan are also fanning the flames of sedition: an accusation that has been roundly rejected by both Cairo and the Sudanese army. Furthermore, it is no mystery that Ethiopia is at loggerheads with both. In August, the Egyptian government said it would not tolerate Addis Ababa building new dams on the Nile.
The ambitions to conquer the key junctions
Secondly, the Sudanese army historically accuses Ethiopia of providing assistance to the Rapid Support Forces: a paramilitary group with which the Sudanese Armed Forces have been fighting since 2023. It is in this tense climate that the Egyptian president met in New Alamein on Sunday Abdel Fattah al-Sisithe Eritrean president Isaias Afwerkithe Somali president Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and the head of the Sudanese army Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. On this occasion, the four leaders signed a joint statement which, especially in the passages dedicated to the Nile and the Red Sea, clearly sounded like a warning to Ethiopia.
In short, tension continues to grow overall in North-East Africa. And there is increasingly fear of an armed conflict between Asmara and Addis Ababa. In addition to the humanitarian aspect, the risk is that these fibrillations will merge with the crisis that the Red Sea is already experiencing due to the clash between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis, backed by Iran.
On Monday, the military forces of the coalition led by Riyadh announced that they had reconquered some areas near Bab el-Mandeb. Around the same time, the Houthis launched attacks on two Saudi airports, wounding three people. The situation in the Red Sea therefore remains critical. And growing tensions in the Horn of Africa could soon worsen the picture.
