There are still 33 days (and 99 points) to go until the end of the championship, but the Opta Predictor has tried to trace the final ranking. Providing quite a few surprises. Here are the forecasts…
A giant glass ball to try to write the future of the Serie A championship in advance. Who will win the scudetto in May? Who will get the pass for the rich Champions League and who will have to settle for the other cups organized by UEFA? And who will be saved by avoiding the nightmare of relegation? Carthusian and risky work Opt has entrusted its Predictor which for years has been monitoring the progress of tournaments day by day, asking its algorithms to predict how it will end. Everything in percentages, from the most noble objective to that linked to pure survival.
After the first five days of the championship, here’s howOpt Predictor constructed its hypothetical final ranking, not without surprises. Because it has been known from the beginning that not all teams will be able to reach the goal they have set for themselves, but for the algorithm it is sensational who will be forced to remain outside the Champions League, a watershed between the rich takings of the Europe that counts and another summer of tears and blood to bring the numbers back into the balance sheet.
Starting from the scudetto, the forecast points straight to the confirmation of theInter who already won last May. The Nerazzurri are credited with a 45.08% chance of sewing the tricolor on their shirt, even if they have to overcome the competition of two opponents who will give them a hard time until the end such as Roma and Como. It will be a duel that will be resolved, according to forecasts, in a total of around ten points.
In the Champions League, again according toOpt Predictorwill land there without problems Rome by Gasperini (73.79% chance, almost certainty) and the How of Fabregas who is credited with a 54.28% chance of repeating last year’s miracle by climbing one position in the rankings. Fourth and final slot assigned to Juventus (49.73%): Spalletti defeats Amorim (38.67%) who also keeps Lazio and Napoli inside.
Thus, we move down to the Europa League taking into account only the basic format which brings the 5th place in the championship and the winner of the Italian Cup to the competition which is just lower in status than the Champions League. Assuming it goes like this, but usually the overlap causes the pass for the Europa League to go down one place, inside there is the Milan credited with 12.20% which is slightly higher than the 12.19% of the Lazio of Gattuso whose point of failure could be the Conference League unless someone from the floor above wins the Italian Cup from which the Biancocelesti were eliminated early.
Lazio occupies the place in the Conference League in the basic forecast. But if the winner of the Italian Cup was placed in the first six positions, then box number seven would become useful, which in the algorithm’s predictions is entrusted to Naples (12.04% Conference qualification from this starting point). The Neapolitans paid for the terrible start which certainly affected the algorithm’s projections, but it is surprising to see how from Inter’s main opponents they fell to a paltry 2.65% chance of winning the title.
Out of everything Atalanta (8th place), Florentine (12th) e Bologna (13th) to stay with the teams that have appeared in European cups with fair continuity in recent years. Worth noting is the remarkable 9th position assigned at the end of the season to Cagliarione of the surprises of the championship together with Frosinone who, according to the predictive algorithm, will have no problem saving himself by finishing in the middle of the standings (11th).
In the red zones, however, Opt Predictor delivers an almost certain verdict and two sentences with a margin of… salvation. The verdict is relegation from last in the league Venice (73.49% chance of returning to Serie B), while Genoa (42.87%) and above all Parma (37.63%) are placed among the relegated teams with eight months ahead of them to try to reverse their destiny. As always, in fact, the sprint to safety will be tight until the last minute and according to the algorithm the difference between those who survive (Monza 36.11%) and those who drop in category is slim.
