The current situation in Syria is perfect for the definitive revival of Islamic State not only in the country but throughout the Middle East however, the situation remains complex. The absence of the regime Assad it will almost certainly offer ISIS greater freedom of movement and maneuver within the country. However, it is precisely the oppression exercised by the Assad regime that has fueled much of the Syrian protests, thus representing an important recruiting lever for ISIS. With the escape of Bashar Al Assad, the group could encounter greater difficulties in recruiting and for this reason it will have to leverage other factors of discontent that are still present, such as sectarianism, the enormous socioeconomic inequalities, the latent tensions between Syrian tribes, clans and militias which risk being further exacerbated.
According to unclassified data, ISIS attacks in Syria have tripled compared to last year, reaching around 700 incidents in 2024. In addition to numerical growth, the group’s offensives have evolved in terms of sophistication and lethality, also spanning a wider geographical area. Despite its downsized status, ISIS retains considerable warfare capability, allowing it to reorganize, recruit new members and prepare new offensives. The most vulnerable targets remain the prisons and detention camps in north-eastern Syria, currently under the surveillance of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a Kurdish militia allied with the United States which manages Syrian refugee camps with innumerable difficulties, for example that of Al-Holin the north-east of Syria where second UNICEF no fewer than 70,000 people live there and the estimate is that 90% of them are women and children.
ISIS which by its nature is opportunistic, is closely watching the SDF, particularly since clashes broke out between the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) and the SDF. The Kurds were attacked in both Kobani and Manbij, hit by deadly Turkish drones and other military assets. In northern Syria, a ceasefire between the SNA and the Kurds is precarious and the big concern is that the Kurds will lose the geographically and symbolically important city of Kobane. The SDF are also facing major challenges in Deir ez-Zor, with protests against their government and in Raqqa, already the capital of the Islamic State, and al-Hasakah by Sunni Arabs. If the fighting were to continue and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan decided to push the Turkish army to create a buffer zone or fight against Kurdish forces, the fight against ISIS would be seriously affected. The movement of Kurdish troops from guarding prisons and detention centers could offer ISIS the opportunity to regroup and strike, as already happened with the al-Hasakah prison break in January 2022, in line with their campaign and in line with the campaign “Breaking the Walls” of ISIS. There are over 9,500 ISIS militants detained in over 20 separate SDF facilities across Syria. This is in addition to the 42,000 associated family members, women and children, in camps such as al-Hol and al-Roj.
In the short to medium term, ISIS will likely continue to exponentially increase its operations without neglecting the organization’s structures. The organization could also exploit tensions within HTS to attract extremists dissatisfied with the more moderate and pragmatic approach adopted by the group. HTS ranks still include jihadists from Chechnya, the Balkans and Central Asia, along with around a hundred foreign fighters, including Europeans. Although HTS has expelled numerous radicalized militants over the years, not all have accepted the group’s new political line. These internal fissures are therefore likely to provide further opportunities for ISIS to strengthen its presence and influence. The main obstacle to ISIS ambitions in Syria is a stable and cohesive state, led by a single authority capable of exercising exclusive control over the use of force within well-defined sovereign borders. However, considering the fragmentation of the country, with the Kurds de facto controlling the Northeast, the constant tension between Arabs and Kurds and the instability of the HTS government, the prospect of a united and pacified Syria appears quite remote. In this context, ISIS may continue to expand, further underlining the need for decisive interventions by the United States to counter the group. An example is the American airstrikes conducted in recent weeks against ISIS positions in central Syria, which hit 75 separate targets. Furthermore, last December 16, the United States Central Command (CENTCOM) announced new targeted raids, declaring in a statement that «the attacks against ISIS leaders, members and structures are part of the ongoing mission to disrupt, weaken and defeat the terrorist group. The goal is to prevent ISIS from conducting international operations and exploiting opportunities to regroup in central Syria.” As is often the case, a resurgence of ISIS in any region of the world can further strengthen the group’s global network. In many ways, considering the various branches, affiliates and groups linked to the Islamic State franchise, the whole appears more powerful than the individual components. An ISIS return to Syria would occupy a central role in the group’s propaganda, which would be amplified by a vast ecosystem of media platforms, some official and many unofficial. This further amplifies the reach of the message, radicalizing and inspiring new supporters and followers.
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