The (black) accounts of the Superbonus. A 135 billion hole

A disaster, announced. The accounting of the building bonuses (110% super bonus and facade bonus) is clear. 135 billion euros of public deficit in four years. Dividing by four (even if obviously not all years were the same) it comes to 33 billion euros per year. It is like, or rather more than, an additional financial institution (the last one was 24 billion). And it is a burden on the state coffers that will not end in 2023, despite the new rules. Already in the month of January 2024 alone, investments eligible for deduction (ENEA data 31 January) grew by 5.7 billion euros compared to the end of December, despite the stop to the invoice discount, the transfer of credit and the cut in the deduction at 70%.

Beyond the frauds (at least 15 billion blocked by the Revenue Agency) the accounts demonstrate a disastrous impact on the public budget. It was 2020 when it all started. Forecasts? 40 billion euros. In mid-2023 the revision: 85 billion euros. A difference of 45 billion euros.

At the end of 2023, looking at reality and not at forecasts, that gap doubled, reaching 90 billion euros. In December last year we were at 112 billion in super bonuses (against the 35 initially expected) and 26.5 billion in facade bonuses (against the 5.9 expected).

Then came the stop (limitations) to superbonuses and facade bonuses. But it's not over and it won't be over anytime soon. In January 2024 the numbers went up again: for the superbonus alone the investments eligible for deduction exceeded 107 billion euros, compared to 102.7 at the end of December. The incentives for investments on completed works (91.6% of the total) rise to 98 billion euros. The deductions accrued for works completed at the expense of the State amount to a total of 107.37 billion, a marked increase compared to the 99.7 billion at the end of December. These are almost 114 thousand condominiums, 241 thousand villas and 8 castles (value allowed for deduction 1,068 billion euros). And from now until 2026-2027 we are expecting at least 22 billion per year of increased public debt.

The billions in tax credits to be offset? There are 135 billion in tax credits generated by the superbonus and the Facades bonus (+30 billion euros created by the other building bonuses). Total: 165 billion euros. Those compensated so far are around 25 billion. It means that 140 billion in tax credits are still waiting to be collected and will be paid into the state budget for the next few years. How many decades will it take for this money to come in? And how much more will the bill for this drain on Italian coffers go up?